WEEK 4: CUSA COMPOSITE RANKINGS

Please excuse the mess while Hoot State 2.0 is still under construction. I wanted to try out the post editor on the new platform, so let’s check in with the machines to see what they have to say about the state of Conference USA after the season’s first quarter.

Considering talent level, early performances, expectations that are still baked-in, etc., the composite power ratings turned out pretty fair. You’ll have some outliers — like how ESPN’s own FPI and SP+ have a 27-spot gap on WKU — that are evened out by all the quirks from the various systems.

I tossed the latest DraftKings odds into the chart, too, even if gambling on a title game winner in September does seem a little silly. That at least gives some context on what the betting market says, without quite as many fluctuations week-to-week. If you forced me to hand out a pick, I think I’d go with longer odds in the FIU/UTEP/Kennesaw range based on value. Not that I’m predicting it - just that you might find better ways to monetize your trust in that lead pack.

Stock up, compared to last week’s ratings: Most of the league moved in the right direction, at least slightly, following the Week 3 performances. Louisiana Tech jumps more than 10 spots after demolishing New Mexico State, 49-14. Both CUSA newcomers climb the ladder to join FIU/UTEP in the emerging middle class.

Stock down: Liberty (obviously) and NMSU were the only two teams to really see a considerable dip in the composite. If you liked Liberty at -110 before the season, you’ll LOVE them at +500. Strange times up in Lynchburg. Jamey Chadwell’s getting some hot board mentions for the VT job already, and there’s enough talent in the building that could start looking elsewhere if the season is a wash. Something to monitor considering the Owls visit the Flames for the season finale.

Our mighty Fighting Owls are still down toward the bottom of the league but up about six spots nationally from the preseason projections. Jerry Mack’s team has picked up a couple points in the SP+ and held firm at about -16 in FPI. It’s almost impossible for the offense to be as inefficient as last year, so an early season adjustment always seemed like the most likely outcome. The systems that update weekly with projected win totals, like FPI and Kelley Ford, still have the Owls slightly above 4 wins for the year.

With some QB certainty expected in the near future, don’t be surprised if there’s more improvement on the horizon, at least analytically speaking, now that they’re entering the G5 portion of the slate. We’re going to learn a whole lot about Kennesaw when Arkansas State comes to town this weekend, fresh off keeping it within a score against a top-15 Iowa State team.

Question of the week from Jerry Mack’s press conference: “Has Christian Moss complained about the ball coming his way too much?” That’s the mark of a true performance artist working for the AJC, because I genuinely can’t tell if it was a serious statement.

Did we learn a ton from Mack’s media session this week? Outside of a couple injury reports — Daniel Kinney and Donelius Johnson are “day-to-day” and Lyndon Ravare will be good to go — there weren’t many (any?) new developments. We did get the requisite check-in on the state of the QB competition. To save you some time: They’re going to watch the film and evaluate Dexter Williams and Amari Odom in practice this week. Here’s the full presser if you absolutely insist.

If Mack didn’t start Williams — the biggest year-one personnel investment for Dave Walens — on the night they christened the field for KSU’s new Bag Man, how much of a battle do we really have? I find it hard to believe that DWII was the unquestioned QB1 at Wake Forest, played a handful of snaps against Indiana (and was subbed in favor of Davis Bryson in a 3rd and short), and then the Owls suddenly had no idea who should start at quarterback the next two weeks. Even if you take Mack at face value that there’s a decision left to make (I do not), the rep split makes zero sense and wasted the chance to get equivalent data points in two of the three games.

I think the question is less about whether Odom will take the job, which seems inevitable at this point, barring an absolute heater from Williams against A-State. I’m more curious about exactly how long Odom’s been the guy in Mack and Militello’s eyes. I suppose we’ll find out more on Saturday, hopefully with more clarity this time around.

I think we’ll see some more of the passing stuff, like those condensed splits, more often heading into conference play. Outside of running mesh rail (not exactly a Heupel staple) at Wake Forest, they’ve kept a lot of that stuff in the bag so far. The screen game is another part of that film review to keep an eye on here, as that’s an element of the game the Owls just haven’t gotten off the ground yet. For whatever it’s worth, Tennessee’s offensive staff even acknowledged the need to evolve beyond the core tenets of the Veer and Shoot.