THIS IS HOW I WIN
The most important college football news of the week didn’t come from the House vs. NCAA settlement, private equity leeches or the upcoming revival of the EA game. Instead, I am locked in on gambling responsibly and these Conference USA win totals that are now live on FanDuel:
10.5 - Liberty
7.5 - Jacksonville State and WKU
5.5 - Louisiana Tech
4.5 - FIU, MTSU, New Mexico State, UTEP, Sam Houston
2.5 - Kennesaw State
Current odds (as of 5/24) force you to pay a little extra juice on KSU’s over (-130) vs. the under (+104), but all things considered, the 2.5/3 win range seems to be a fair valuation on a team with almost zero certainty heading into the uncharted territory of Conference USA. If you believe in - or really doubt - the Owls in year one, here’s your chance to cash in. I’m still morally opposed to taking any under on one of my teams, whether a future or just a team total, so I plan on staying away unless the total makes a sizable move in either direction.
Elsewhere in Conference USA, there are worse bets in the world than taking the over on a Liberty team that will be double-digit favorites in nearly every conference game and will only play two games all season against teams within 50 spots in SP+. The middle class is also alive and well in CUSA as FanDuel shrugged its shoulders outside the top 3, with six different teams hovering around the 5 win mark amidst a ton of roster and coaching staff turnover in the league. We’re all just flipping coins at this point, but I think Sam Houston may be a bit undervalued here at 4.5. UTEP as well, but their OOC schedule (at Nebraska, at Colorado State, and at Tennessee) doesn’t leave Scotty Waldren a ton of margin for error in conference play.
Speaking of SP+, ESPN’s Bill Connelly also updated his preseason power ratings earlier this week to account for the spring transfer window. The Owls dropped one spot to 130, which I think is a function of how Connelly adjusted the value of returning FCS production. Brian Bohannon’s debut FBS team comes in at a -20.9 rating and would essentially be a three-touchdown underdogs to a replacement level FBS squad on a neutral field.
We’re somehow only 99 days out from kicking off the season at the Alamodome, and we also have a game line posted for the opener against UTSA. The earliest line opened up with the Roadrunners as 24-point favorites, but it’s since come down to -22. After years of not seeing our FCS lines until mid-morning on gameday, it’s pretty surreal to have a matchup posted on DraftKings and Caesars a full six months out.
Taking a look at some of the futures, early lines, and power ratings made me wonder where we might see Vegas (which is typically not far off from SP+) collectively weigh in on the rest of the slate. Applying Connelly’s standard 2.5 points for home-field advantage, you can take these most recent preseason ratings and get a decent gauge on what else the Owls are up against this fall after leaving San Antonio. It really is a perfect Rorschach test on your Kennesaw optimism - do you look at some of these numbers and see a chance to catch the league by surprise, or do you rush to hammer that under 2.5? The nice thing is that whether you’re dreaming of a JMU/Jacksonville State debut and planning bowl travel or you’re putting a mortgage on a one-win season, everyone’s right this time of year.
Aug 31 - Kennesaw State (+25.1) at UTSA
Sept. 7 - Louisiana at Kennesaw State (+19.8)
Sept. 14 - Kennesaw State (+11) at San Jose State
Sept. 28 - UT Martin
Oct. 4 - Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State (+9.5)
Oct. 15 - Kennesaw State (+10.3) at MTSU
Oct. 23 - Liberty at Kennesaw State (+25)
Oct. 30 - Kennesaw State (+24.3) at Western Kentucky
Nov. 9 - Kennesaw State (+5.2) at UTEP
Nov. 16 - Sam Houston at Kennesaw State (+6.6)
Nov. 23 - FIU at Kennesaw State (Pick ‘em)
Nov. 30 - Kennesaw State (+6.3) at Louisiana Tech