CAN THE OWLS TURN BACK THE DOOMSDAY CLOCK?
Previewing Kennesaw State-UT Martin, a homecoming matchup that's far more interesting for what happens next.
Good news: If the winless Owls want to get on track with a homecoming win before CUSA play kicks off next Friday night, UT Martin is by far the worst team they’ve seen all year.
Bad news: The Skyhawks can probably say the same thing.
Spread: Kennesaw State -1.5
Total: O/U 45.5
SP+ Projection: UT Martin 25, Kennesaw State 21
Sagarin: UTM by 1.5
PREGAME READING LIST
Marietta Daily Journal | Owls Struggling to Find Positives on Offense
KSUOwls.com | Parliament Profile: Ready for Homecoming
Is this the biggest game in Brian Bohannon’s career?
For a young program, Kennesaw State has played in a fair share of big games: A few close FBS paychecks, runs to the FCS quarterfinals, a neutral site matchup against Jacksonville State, things of that nature. All those moments mattered based on what an Owls win meant for the program, rather than what happened with a loss.
If you’re looking at potential downside, there’s not really a close second to the personal stakes Bohannon faces on Saturday. Winning doesn’t earn you much goodwill from an anxious fan base and really just prevents the Doomsday Clock from ticking forward a few minutes closer to midnight.
If the Owls drop to 0-4? I don’t want to belabor the point after spending far too many words on the state of the program last week. TLDR: There’s not much of a path forward for the current regime if they fail this test. This game is as must-win as must-win can possibly get in late September against an average FCS team, which was coincidentally Kennesaw State’s last D1 win back in 2022.
Every other opponent in the FBS debut season comes with a built-in excuse: Bowl teams, cross-country travel, funding and talent gaps, whatever flawed-but-technically-true reasoning you want to use. UT Martin’s visit for homecoming removes them all, giving us as clear a progress report as possible against the sort of program the Owls are trying to leave behind in FCS.
One moment that struck me in an otherwise boring pregame presser: John Bednarowski of the MDJ pushed back, by his standards, regarding the limited adjustments and lack of success in the run game. Bohannon continues to talk in circles while describing his desired outcomes, and not the path to get there. It’s like asking your doctor for a diagnosis, and she tells you to get healthy.
It’s kind of like feast or famine. We’re not very consistent. The biggest thing is we just can’t beat ourselves. Everybody has to go do their job.
When have the Owls feasted? Some light snacking, maybe, in the form of one or two sustained drives per game that are usually on script and often just scrape out a field goal. Consistency is the furthest thing from the problem on offense. They’re one of the worst early-down teams in recorded history, run inside zone almost constantly to little effect, and the only real unknown is which guy will whiff on a block or false start on a critical down. Need to drop the requisite PFF ratings aren’t gospel content warning here, but look at how the Owls’ projected starters for Saturday graded out through the first quarter of the season, along with the unit’s radar chart.
None of this looks like a consistency issue.
The coaching staff, especially on offense, has managed games with the goal to keep the final score palatable. To that end, they’ve mostly succeeded: Every scoreline flatters the Owls (by about 12 points per game) in terms of Bill Connelly’s adjusted postgame margins. The team’s not playing well at all, but they’re also not taking the risks to have a chance. At a certain point, co-OC and playcaller Chandler Burks in particular will have to ditch the conservatism for something new.
What does the Kennesaw offense do well? Not much, clearly. However, more of their limited success has come through the air despite a reliance on trying to Establish the Run. EPA numbers and explosive play rate so far would favor passing more often, as counterproductive as it sounds with an inexperienced QB in Davis Bryson. It’s sort of a compounding problem when they don’t trust him (or Khalib Johnson) enough to run a full offense, but also don’t give him enough passing reps to figure anything out.
Looking through the numbers so far, UT Martin’s defense appears more beatable through the air with 13 passing TDs and 297 yards allowed per game, compared to just 102 yards on the ground, which is good for 17th in FCS. Every Skyhawks safety allows 15+ yards/catch, and CB Rob Johnson has been targeted once every 5 passing snaps.
Why not use this last non-conference game as a test kitchen for to cook up something in the passing game? The pass blocking situation is dire enough that you won’t be able to rely on anything deep, but they have to get more comfortable with the idea of quick passes, screens, and RPO concepts. Your ideal aerial attack hinges on the health of Gabe Benyard and Christian Moss (curiously not mentioned by Bohannon while talking about injuries), but even with Tykeem Wallace and Navelle Dean in the lineup, there are enough available receivers to give it a shot against a vulnerable pass defense.
Patrick Smith, UT Martin’s Vandy transfer at RB, scares me more than any Skyhawk in my extensive research (watching a couple condensed games and deep-diving stats). Kennesaw State’s rush defense, for the most part, has held up on the interior with Pooda Walker at nose and a rotating cast of MLBs behind him. A 20% stuff rate and 1.71 average in line yards both rank in the top half of FBS, with a run defense success rate that trails only Liberty in CUSA.
KSU’s main issue with the rushing attack on Saturday is that Smith does most of his damage outside the tackles, where he’s racked up 197 yards on 31 carries - 165 of which came after contact. That’s the exact recipe Louisiana used to run all over the Owls for 7 yards/carry and 3 TDs in the home opener. That puts the OLBs in focus as the biggest roadblocks for UT Martin’s workhorse back. If Kennesaw is able to get in the win column, you can trace that back to how Juan Silas and Jalen Barnum perform on the edge.
In the passing game, nearly half of UT Martin’s targets go to WRs Trevonte Rucker (18 catches/250 yards/4 TDs) and Devonte Tanksley (14 for 210). Even with lesser production, Tanksley may turn out to be more of a threat to the Owls as he’s lined up in the slot on all but 10 of his passing snaps this year. You only run back the SJSU film to see an example of an inside receiver completely taking over the game against the Owls.
Related: If I am Isaac Paul, I’m still not on speaking terms with Greg Harris after a game plan that repeatedly left him on an island against Nick Nash, without any adjustment.
Breakout candidate: S Chris Townsel
A spring Achilles injury to new edge rusher Donovan Westmoreland clearly set back plans on defense in a major way, but I still think we’re underselling the impact of losing Deontre Morris to Georgia Southern. Three games into the season, Harris is still searching for a consistent solution at safety in a defense that heavily relies on them in both run support and coverage. Harris needs much, much more from the back end of the secondary, where he currently starts the two lowest-graded safeties in all of CUSA.
My bet is an increased role for Chris Townsel, the USF transfer who only logged 21 snaps in the first three weeks but now has 37 career games under his belt at the G5 level. The fifth-year senior joins Milon Jones - another potential answer and the unit’s top pass defender - as the only KSU safeties to grade out above a 55/100 on the season from PFF. This week, he made his first appearance on the pregame depth chart - listed as backup rover behind Sidney Porter.
Maybe I am overexposed on Townsel stock at this point, but I keep going back to the idea that there wasn’t really a reason for him to come to Kennesaw for a one-off season without an expectation that he’d play considerable minutes. At this point, there’s not much stopping you from giving him extra reps to see what you have, especially during what’s likely to be the last game all season in which the Owls are favored.