Until last week’s beatdown-turned-nail-biter, favorites held serve in Kennesaw State’s first three games: A narrow defeat at Wake Forest, a blowout loss at Indiana that’s actually aging well, and an uneven but relieving win over FCS independent Merrimack.
Jerry Mack’s rebuild certainly feels like it’s ahead of schedule right now, but everyone’s always in a good mood after a win. His Owls kick off conference play against MTSU in uncharted territory, at least during the program’s FBS tenure: Favorites (7.5 points at the moment), on a winning streak (technically), and not facing any sort of existential crisis like a QB controversy or dark cloud lingering over the coaching staff. We’re about to find out how warranted the positive vibes are when the CUSA slate starts on Saturday and then sees the Owls on national TV three times during the month of October.
I’m a little scared of my optimism, to be honest. I desperately need an Owls win this weekend, mostly for personal reasons. My last 6 IRL Kennesaw State football games are @ Wake Forest this season, Jacksonville State (2024), @ Chattanooga (2023), Tennessee State (2023), @ Cincinnati (2022), and @ Georgia Tech (2021). All losses, with varying levels of competition. I’m coming on Saturday night and will swear off attending any future KSU games if the lads don’t get the job done.
No matter what happens, it can’t get worse than the 2024 CUSA opener or the last time the Owls and Blue Raiders faced off. Who could forget the offensive masterclass for both teams in MTSU’s 14-5 weeknight victory? Let’s not re-open those old wounds. We’re moving forward.
PREGAME MEDIA
While the hometown MDJ runs paywalled KSU Owls dot com press releases, at least the AJC (sometimes) covers the team. This week, Stan Awtrey wrote a piece about the Benyard brothers, two program mainstays across eras that affect the game in all three phases.
The Blue Raider Podcast hosted OCP’s Kai Millette for a Behind Enemy Lines episode that dropped Friday afternoon.
Murfreesboro’s Daily News Journal runs through the key storylines for Year Two under Derek Mason.
You know how you can tell a team is destined for greatness? When camp buzz revolves around saving money on equipment. MTSU somehow managed to get multiple outlets to breathlessly report that the program “added $668,000 to its NIL budget.” Sure. Worth a read to understand the financial reality at many programs at our level.
Let’s run through a couple of the usual suspects in the analytics department to get a overview of the Blue Raiders. First up: Game on Paper with a side-by-side comparison and a radar chart to break down MTSU’s strengths and weaknesses. Spoiler: Derek Mason didn’t really fix the core problems.
And CFB Graphs, which actually spits out a final score projection (more of those to come later). As inept as the Blue Raiders can be at times, both offenses come into Saturday with an identical Quality Drive Rate.
The numbers certainly don’t love MTSU, but their season isn’t quite as buried as it would’ve seemed in the 34-14 loss to Austin Peay. In fact, based on adjusted EPA/play margin, MTSU ranks 96th, while Kennesaw sits at 127. That’s the pregame coping method I would use if I was an analytically-minded football fan in Murfreesboro, for the record.
PLAYER TO WATCH: MARCUS PATTERSON (OR LITERALLY THE ENTIRE DEFENSIVE LINE)
When PFF aligns with my personal agenda, the evaluation process is always on point. If not, that despicable organization does not know any ball whatsoever. With that in mind, please take a look at MTSU’s pass protection grades.
Yes, MTSU’s starting quarterback grades out as the fourth-best pass blocker on the team. Only one of the top six Blue Raiders even plays offensive line. PFF’s grading system is entirely subjective, sure, but this is all breathtakingly bad. Those tackles in MTSU’s rotation — Otts, Habinowski, and Clayton — rank 67th, 68th, and 69th out of the 69 CUSA offensive linemen with 50+ passing snaps. That trio’s combined grade (61.1) doesn’t even match the pass blocking grade of the guy they’re supposed to protect.
Does that stop Vattiato from slinging it all over the place? Nope. MTSU’s rush rate over expected of -13.1% means that when looking at game state (down, distance, score, etc.) the Blue Raiders throw more often than all but three teams in the entire nation. Vattiato’s a perfectly capable CUSA quarterback with 8K career yards and 52 TDs to his name. He just fails the “Why are you still here"?” test: If he’s someone you should build an entire offense around, would he be back for another year in CUSA behind this OL?
Why Patterson, specifically, as the key player on Saturday? As the Owls switch back and forth between odd and even fronts — and Mattioli’s third-and-long package brings on Donovan Westmoreland and Elijah Hill — Patterson will see the widest variety of Blue Raiders' linemen.
His alignment shows off the versatility: 24.5% B gap, 24.5% over the tackle, and 51% outside the tackle. He’ll see match up with tackles on standard downs, then go to work on guys like Guevara, who’s their best OL, in the obvious passing situations that MTSU lives in. An average third-down distance of 8.47 yards to go means the Owls’ Death Lineup will see plenty of opportunities.
Kennesaw’s pass rush win rate doesn’t quite match up to how we’re feeling when the opponent drops back. It seems like I’m watching much, much more pressure, yet only Hill (11.8%, 8th) and Patterson (9.3%, 18th) rank in CUSA’s top 35 currently. When you look at total pressures, though, five different Owls make that cut:
6th - Tylon Dunlap, 10 pressures
9th - Patterson, 9 pressures
16th - Hill, 7 pressures
31st (tie) - Westmoreland/Watkins, 4 pressures apiece
The analytics/eye test divide might change on Saturday. Only the FBS newcomer Missouri State has allowed more sacks than MTSU among CUSA teams this year. Could this be a glass houses situation given KSU’s own uneasy pass pro performances? Sure. Even if this turns out to be a rare defensive line shootout, this will be a breakout game for the Owls’ front four where the stat sheet starts to match what we think we’re seeing.
I’m a little surprised the connection between Mason and KSU DC Marc Mattioli didn’t get more play in the buildup to the game. Mattioli’s coaching career took off under the tutelage of Mason, who served as Stanford’s defensive coordinator when Mattioli got to Palo Alto as a GA. Mason then bought Mattioli to Vanderbilt as his safeties coach in 2015, where the pair worked together for six seasons. When Vandy’s admin cleaned house in 2020, Mattioli started on a world tour that took him to Parma and Paris before making his way back to Georgia and taking the Kennesaw DC job.
I’m very intrigued by the chess match between Mattioli and his old boss. Yeah, it’s true that neither guy will directly call plays against the other. You can’t ignore the shared history and common ground defensively as both guys continue to blend 3-4 principles into the 4-2-5 base they mostly live in. How much will that inherent knowledge be worth for the two offenses? Plus, we might have a true Wrestlemania moment from Mattioli when he lines up his defense on third-and-long with four different edge rushers on the field.
WILL THE OWLS BE ABLE TO RUN THE BALL?
Despite the best efforts of Coleman Bennett and Alexander Diggs after contact, the Owls RBs are getting hit less than a yard from the line of scrimmage on average (0.69 yards for Bennett, 0.97 for Diggs). Only New Mexico State’s offensive line has posted a worse yards before contact number this year. That plays out in the form of a 24.7% stuffed run rate, which is actually worse than how the Owls performed on the ground in 2024.
Courtesy of Game on Paper, here are the MTSU defense’s run-specific numbers so far this season. A stuff rate of 21.5% puts the Blue Raiders in the 63rd percentile nationally. Not an ideal matchup for Kennesaw’s run game that’s already susceptible to blowups.
Mason seems fairly worried about dealing with Benyard, Moss, and Ravare simultaneously, but he’ll feel a little more confident trying to stop the Owls from running. That’s been MTSU’s main strength through the non-conference slate, led by DT Damonte Smith. His matchups against KSU’s interior OL — center Josiah Chenault, and guards Brandon Best and JT Pennington — will decide KSU’s rushing success.
Honestly, though, that may not matter much given the state of MTSU’s cornerbacks with Trevon Ferrell injured. MTSU’s remaining corners give up an average passer rating of 126.6. If you’re looking to unlock the downfield passing game for newly minted starting QB Amari Odom, find some optimism in an opposing secondary that is 1st percentile in explosive pass rate (13.8%). This doesn’t matter at all, but for a small world moment: Former Owls WR Jaden Robinson, a player Mack elected not to retain this season, started the scoring for Austin Peay in the opener.
Rickey Smith, MTSU’s primary defender in slot coverage, gives up a catch every 4.8 passing snaps. Gabe Benyard will look at him in a very similar way that the Owls’ edges will eye the Blue Raider tackles pre-snap. Benyard likely goes for 100+ again on Saturday— brave take, I know.
OTHER NOTES
Through four games of KSU’s Veer and Hoot offense, we can start to compare our new and old identities in terms of playcalling and personnel. Play action? 3x more often than last year. Tight ends? Off the menu, mostly, to the point where the Owls are switching defensive linemen to the position and giving them immediate snaps. Check out the full chart, with a major assist from Bud Davis on the data for both seasons.
We should have paid proper respect last time we played MTSU: Cornelius Williams of Two-a-Days fame coaches receivers for the Blue Raiders. That’s important to a very specific generation who watched him play for Rush Propst on MTV. He joins West from Summer House on the Mt. Rushmore of reality stars who have matched up with the Owls. Hoover’s DC at the time was Jeremy Pruitt, because the Tennessee connections never end.
JUCO transfer Nahzae Cox, one of Williams’ wideouts, will present a challenge at 6’3”, 200 pounds if Vattiato gets enough time to throw. His 8 contested catches leads the nation, and his 20 catches and 4 TDs outpace any of CUSA’s other receivers. Cox lines up exclusively out wide — setting up nonstop battles with Caleb Offord and JeRico Washington. I think I’d rather see Offord on him, given the physicality. Matchups like this are exactly why you load up on 6’2” corners.
Here’s what the rest of the assorted Smart Guys and computers have to say about Saturday night’s matchup. For the record, the HOOT system says Owls by 17.
Vegas: Owls by 7.5
SP+: Owls by 14.4
FPI: Owls by 7.6
CFB Graphs: Owls by 4.7
Massey: Owls by 2.5
Kelley Ford: Owls by 7.2
