Point @ Kennesaw State
7 PM ET | ESPN+ | Convocation Center
What a week for the Owls: A nationally televised battle against Jacksonville State at the top of CUSA’s football standings and an emotional Love wins Classic against USF on Sunday afternoon. Tonight’s game, against a team that went 4-21 in NAIA last year, is also technically part of that moment.
Much of KSU’s non-conference schedule saves money, this game included, with limited SkyMiles and three different non-DI opponents. That’s a smart play once you reach a level where scheduling the Owls becomes a liability for our fellow DI opponents. Tonight’s reported $3,500 payday (via The KSU Sentinel) would cover about 11% of the average tuition for one Point University student. I’ll still tune in, but this game’s a hard sell knowing what’s on deck for this weekend.
Projections: Not many of our trusty analytics sources project non-NCAA games with an actual score due to a lack of comparable cross-division data. At least they’re all brave enough to say the Owls scrape out a win.
KenPom: KSU W
Bart Torvik: KSU W
BPI: 99.9% chance of a KSU W
Massey: KSU 100, Point 52
What’s at stake? Nothing, barring a nuclear Epitome of Brutality. We’ve already gotten two looks at the Owls on the home court, and already enjoyed extended walk-on minutes in the first two real games. I am more invested in this game as a star-making opportunity for Brandon Johnson on commentary. Watch this space, folks.
Most interesting Skyhawk: Scrolling Point’s roster, I thought I had a lock in Vallon Toussaint: A junior guard from St. Thomas, with Georgia State listed as his previous school. What a reclamation project. Turns out he was a regular student and campus security guard. His intramural team did go 4-1-1 in the Wednesday night league last winter. That’s awesome, and an excellent reminder that we’re watching college kids at the end of the day. 5’7” guard Yuta Yamamoto also suited up against the Owls last year while he was at Bryan College.
Keep an eye on KSU’s three-point percentage. Not much from tonight’s game will translate to Sunday or the rest of the Owls’ slate. I’m at least a little curious to see how the three point shots fall on a night where you’d expect plenty of open looks. Pettway’s squad has shot 33%, 47%, and 40% from behind the arc across the first three public outings. KSU finished last year’s non-D1 games 33.3% from three.
Last time out: KSU 92, FAMU 72
We do have an actual, real-life basketball games to review, though. Kennesaw bused down to Tallahassee and handled FAMU by 20. Charlie Ward’s squad took a first-half lead, then the Owls regained control for good on a 13-2 run. RJ Johnson made his return to Division I regular season hoops with team-highs in points (18) and minutes (29). Usually a good sign when the walk-ons make an appearance in a real game, too.
“We drove five hours, we went in and beat a good team by 20.” Two-thirds of that sentence is accurate from Antoine Pettway. Even if FAMU does turn out to be in the SWAC basement, there’s no apologizing for winning like that on the road so early in the season.
Thanks to FAMU’s combo-guard heavy rotation, Pettway could experiment with his lineups: Nine different guys played at least 10 minutes, with 28 different combos. If the stream quality was any better, I’d go back and watch more of the RJ/Cottle/Rickard possessions. Those three were together for 8 minutes, with a +62.8 net rating (obvious asterisk for small sample size). The CBB Analytics shot charts tell the story well enough, anyway.
Three other stats that matter:
Ramone Seals: 102% true shooting. Yeah, that’ll play, especially hitting 2 of 3 from behind the arc. The TS% for Seals is one of the numbers Owls fans can use as an overall progress report: If he gives you anything at all on the offensive end, that’s a major lift next two two ball-dominant guards.
KSU posted a 49.1% FT attempt rate. Replacing Wooley’s ability to draw fouls (5.3 per 40 minutes) is an underrated aspect of the succession plan. Decent enough start on the road against a team that’s shown the propensity to be foul-happy so far this season. To be fair, the Rattlers did clean that up a bit last night (only 24.3 FTA% for UCF)…but they gave up 1.3 points per possession. Shrug.
FAMU turned it over on 12.8% of possessions. Without context of the Rattlers’ game earlier in the week, that seems fine. USF just forced them into a 23.8% turnover rate, though. At the other end, KSU gave it up 16.8% of the time — definitely not good, but better than last year’s full season average. It’s also worth mentioning the number of different primary ball handlers Pettway used on Saturday, a few of whom were freshmen. My smart basketball analysis: Turning it over less often is a good thing.
Scoreboard: CUSA and elsewhere
Louisville 96, Kentucky 88
Watching our friend Adrian Wooley feels like tuning into the EPL ~15 years ago to watch the Americans. Wooley hit his first threes of the regular season during a 9 point, 5 rebound night. Still weird to see him go stand in the corner after being on the ball constantly last season.Loyola Marymount 71, UTEP 58
Joe Golding’s rebuilt laced ‘em up for their first D1 game of the season. Projected 73-72 winners on KenPom, the Miners dropped 36 points in KenPom following the loss. They are approximately four points better than the Lincoln Oaklanders now based on the transitive property. I don’t make the rules.Western Kentucky 87, Eastern Kentucky 79
From Monday: Another member of CUSA’s massive middle class, Western Kentucky , thanks to 22 points from Teagan Moore. EKU had ‘em on the ropes but WKU scored 22 in the final 4:29 to extend the series lead to 14-1.
Arkansas State 86, Missouri State 85
Two big runs from the Red Wolves took control despite double-digit Mo State leads for much of the night. 66 total free throws on the evening, including 19 attempts from the Bears’ 6’4” big man.Delaware was on the wrong side of a buy game against BYU, and it was still the best the vibes have been for the 0-3 Blue Hens all season. New Mexico State sorta handled business against DII New Mexico Highlands.
What else to watch tonight
MTSU vs Evansville — 8 PM ET, ESPN+
Blue Raiders are 1.5 point underdogs on the road, with their only DI action coming in an 11-point exhibition loss to Austin Peay. If the WKU rivalry goes by 100 Miles of Hate, whatever Austin Peay’s doing to torment this athletic department needs a name, too. 80 Miles of Why Do These Guys Keep Embarrassing Us? I’m interested to see McDevitt’s squad in a real game, even against KenPom’s 263rd best team. MTSU brings back a few more returners than most, but also lost their four highest usage players due to transfer or exhausted eligibility. We shall see — only about a month until the Owls tip off CUSA play in Murfreesboro.
Reading List
Perhaps Liberty can, in fact, keep getting away with this. From Basket Under Review: How Ritchie McKay, Liberty have won unconventional bet on small guards
Later today, when you find yourself wondering why this Point game exists, consider the deal New Haven cut to get Penn State on campus: One home game, followed by three straight in Happy Valley, free of charge. Matt Norlander at CBS Sports looks under the hood at the challenges scheduling at the lowest level of DI.
Sorry to pollute the Hootaround with non-hoops content. I thought this piece from 247 on how Cincinnati built a roster by filtering 22K perspective transfers to 21 takes. Plus I am a complete mark for any Moneyball reference.
