Welcome back to the Morning Hootaround, a gameday newsletter about the Kennesaw State Owls — the reigning, undisputed champions of the Coconut Hoops Tarpon Bay Division. Please don’t forget to cancel your FloSports subscription.
I don’t mean to alarm anyone, but we’re only two weeks from the start of CUSA play. An extremely sweepable homestand (Jackson State, a rescheduled Georgia State matchup, and #KingChasing against Southern Wesleyan early next week) is all that separates the Owls from meaningful basketball during a trip to MTSU on December 17th.
Based on Pettway’s comments after the OT win against FGCU, he views the team’s response to the Oral Roberts loss as a potential early turning point. Can the Owls confirm that on the home court tonight and handle business as double-digit favorites?
Jackson State @ Kennesaw
7 PM ET | ESPN+ | Convocation Center
Projections
KenPom: KSU 84, JSU 73
Bart Torvik: KSU 85, JSU 73
EvanMiya: KSU 86.9, JSU 73.7
Vegas: Owls -12.5
Can you blame the Tigers for a tough start? A nasty non-con schedule has sent last season’s SWAC finalists on four different high-major road trips, plus a pair of capable non-power teams in Louisiana Tech and Winthrop. Led by Pettway’s former teammate Mo Williams, Jackson State has certainly earned the paychecks so far, with just one home game and a -38 net rating on the young season.
KenPom ranks Jackson State’s early season gauntlet as the 5th toughest schedule in America to this point in the season, though the Tigers finally got a break against Louisiana. 0.83 points/possession was all it took to finally get in the win column on Black Friday. In true sicko fashion, that box score made me track down the highlights. No joke: It’s seven plays long, one of which is Louisiana stumbling over an attempt to drive for a late go-ahead bucket.
Most important question: Does Williams wear the denim jacket again tonight? I say if you play 13 years in the league, you can wear whatever you want on the sideline.
Players to Watch
Daeshun Ruffin (PG, #24) earned SWAC preseason POTY heading into his second year with Jackson State. A former McDonald’s All-American like his head coach, Ruffin started his career at Ole Miss before transferring back to his hometown to finish out his career. Terrell Burden-ish in stature and ball dominance, Ruffin runs the show with one of the highest usage rates in the nation (33.5%, 13th). 39% eFG suggests it’s probably better when the ball’s in his hands.
Jayme Mitchell Jr. (wing, #3) might be the better player, and scores with much more efficiency than Ruffin or McMillan. He leads the Tigers with 14 PPG after Ruffin missed some time against Arkansas and Winthrop. Even if Mitchell regresses from his 48.5% 3P% far this season, he still finished last season above 37%.
Sophomore guard Tamarion Hoover is the only other guy in Jackson State’s rotation worth defending at the 3P line. On a team with a few comically high usage guys, Hoover looks like an under-the-radar pick that could impact the game. Torvik rates him as the most efficient Tiger, which could be a side effect of missing three of JSU’s toughest buy games. Hoover does lead the team in both TS% and eFG% by double-digit margins.
Three JSU numbers that matter
If you didn’t glance at Jackson State’s schedule, tonight would look like a dream for the Owls against a team that can’t score, rebound, or defend. I’m not sure how much value we can take from most of the numbers, but here are a few that stand out amid a sea of garbage time:
Ruffin: 33% usage rate and 31.9% of shots. Jackson State has only played 34 minutes all season without at least one of Ruffin or McMillan on the court. Both guys are pushing past 31% of the Tigers’ shot share and haven’t been particularly effective in the process. For context on how much JSU relies on the backcourt pair on the offensive end: Simeon Cottle only takes 24.8% of shots of Kennesaw’s shots. Barring an out of body performance, it feels like a win if the Owls can make Ruffin force the issue and play hero ball with contested mid-range jumpers.
FT attempt rate: 21.8%. Jackson State’s offense ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in free throw attempt rate, and Kennesaw’s efforts to keep opponents off the charity stripe are even worse: 364th out of 365 teams. Mathematically, somebody has to figure it out at that end of the court tonight.
21.7% of opponent FGA happen in transition. As Kennesaw works two freshmen guards into the rotation (and a RS sophomore who redshirted last year), figuring out Pettway’s preferred tempo will take some time. We’ve already seen a few moments where aa frustrated Pettway essentially moving players around like pieces on the chessboard, antithetical to his ideal flow game. Jackson State’s going to give the Owls some fast break opportunities, as only two teams in America allow a bigger share of transition FGA. The Tigers also allow opponents to shoot 78% at the rim, but that should probably come with a serious asterisk about the strength of schedule.
Main Kennesaw storyline: Pettway’s lineup
Pettway rolled with the same starting lineup for all three games in Ft. Myers: Simeon Cottle and Kaden Rickard at guard, Seals and Lue on the wing, and Perry Smith as the nominal 5. The benefit of mostly razor-thin scorelines at Coconut Hoops (two OT wins and the ORU loss) is that essentially the entire 10-man rotation saw some competitive minutes. Intentional or not, everyone also got at least one “rest” day that scaled back the workload. Here’s the breakdown by each player across each game:
KenPom’s lineup chart extends it out to five games and only counts D1 opponents, so that would cover the entire regular season to this point.
Pettway’s most pressing lineup question is still at point guard, and whether it’s Johnson, Washington, or Rickard next to Cottle in the backcourt. Based only on the usage in Ft. Myers, Rickard appears to have the lead in that race heading back home. I’m interested to see how that plays out minus the MTE constraints of back-to-back-to-back games. Johnson’s coming back from a medical redshirt, and Washington still holds a slight lead in total possessions over his fellow freshman. Pettway will give all three guys a shot to take the job — plus some of the three-guard lineups are intriguing and have flashed some high net ratings in a small sample size.
We’re in the Stats Are Mostly Fake stage of the season, but it’s still pretty interesting to look at the EvanMiya data on efficiency, position, and role across the whole rotation. A few standouts: Pettway’s throwing everything against the wall to replace Adrian Wooley, Frankquon Sherman basically plays center, and the Owls might’ve found something with Perry Smith if they can clean up the defensive numbers with him at the 5.
For context: Wooley, Cottle, and Delaney Heard were the only three Owls sub-2.0 in Miyakawa’s position estimation last season.
