A monthly subscription to FloSports ($19.99) works out to roughly 16.5 cents per minute of Owls basketball, if you do the math on a classic Feast Week join-and-cancel. In a sense, Antoine Pettway’s team did a public service in forcing overtime against Rice: Now the Coconut Hoops Tarpon Bay Division looks like an even better value. Just 15.9 cents once you factor in the bonus five minutes it took for KSU to finish off the comeback over Rice. We call that increasing shareholder value, folks.
Kennesaw 89, Rice 84
Casual, wasn’t worried at all.
Key moment
Simeon Cottle went coast-to-coast to force overtime and avoid disaster after the Owls threw away an inbound pass with 18 seconds left and the game tied 81-81. Rice’s Eternity Eguagie knocked down both free throws, forcing Cottle to go the distance and hit a difficult shot over the bigger Jalen Smith.
Let’s just say the overtime period that followed was not exactly a shootout. Cottle broke the ice with a 3 to take the lead for good as Rice failed to hit a shot from the field during an electrifying, 6-1 scoreline from free slightly-lower-priced basketball. Seals added a fast-break dunk, and Sherman hit a FT late to seal the deal.
The OT shot map, via ESPN. Credit to KSU’s defense for closing out what’s projected to be an inferior opponent.
Not the prettiest win, but at this time of the year, I will always take a grind-it-out OT victory that showed potential and some clear areas to clean up.
Pettway says:
“We looked each other in the eye and I just told ‘em ‘winning time.’ Simeon Cottle stood up, Braedan Lue, Amir, Darius — these guys, you could look in their eyes and just know they were gonna give their all. Win, lose, or draw, I’m good with that as long as I got us connected and we’re playing hard and we’re playing to win. That’s what those dudes did tonight.”
Load management feels like the main story from game one. RJ Johnson came off the bench and only played 8 minutes, similar with Trey Simpson and his 10 minute cameo. Perry Smith did start, but only saw 11 minutes of action. That’s not too far off from how Pettway divided his minutes up at the Western Slam in Alberta last season, but a little less subtle this time around unless a couple guys are dealing with nagging injuries.
Building some scheduled rest into the first two games would also allow the Owls to take a bigger swing at FGCU in the finale on Wednesday night. As of Tuesday morning, that’s the only game in which Kennesaw projects as underdogs.
Pettway gave 20+ minutes to both freshmen guards — Kaden Rickard and Darius Washington III — during which we saw flashes at either end of the freshmen spectrum. Both guys scored 5 points and added 4 assists, with a few boards for Washington and 3 steals for Rickard to round out the box score. That combined with a few ugly turnovers, including a nearly catastrophic giveaway on an inbound in the final minute of regulation, to remind us that there’s still plenty of room to grow.
Freshman big man Amir Taylor also got involved with 14 minutes of action, and gave a glimpse as to what’s possible as he develops. File away this two-man game with Cottle and Taylor if and when the Grayson product takes a more involved role later this season.
Three stats that mattered:
Rice shot 47.4% at the rim (within 4.5 feet). Rob Lanier’s squad entered the tourney in the nation’s bottom-five in both paint points and 2P FG%. Rice got a small bump in 2P% on Monday, mostly thanks to some tough midrange jumpers from a team that does not appear to study the same shot selection analytics as Pettway’s OatsBall. Otherwise, KSU handled business and did not allow a bad interior scoring team to have a get right game. Seven blocked shots for Kennesaw doesn’t hurt, either.
73.2% true shooting for Ramone Seals. If Monday’s version of Seals is even halfway sustainable, that’s an absolute game-changer for KSU. Tracking his true shooting number has been a pet project of mine this season and one of the most important report card metrics for the Owls this year. Why True Shooting? That includes FT results, so it captures Seals’ ability to draw fouls - a trait that was there last season, even during some performances where he was otherwise MIA - and convert at the line. Seals is also up to a 149.9 offensive rating, per KenPom, in the early stages of the season. That would’ve led the ‘24-’25 squad by 30ish points.
It’s way, way, way too early to care about On/Off numbers, but Sherman and Seals have been a winning combo so far for Pettway. +25.5 net rating when the pair plays together, compared to -33 when only one is on the court.
Rice’s FT attempt rate: 63.2%. KSU should’ve figured out a way to donate money for personal fouls committed, like how the Braves donate to the Hank Aaron Foundation after each home run. Throw 26 more fouls (and 38 more FT attempts) into the season long tally after last night. Only one team in America allows a higher free throw attempt rate than the Owls so far this season. One silver lining from the Rice game: KSU at least managed to affect enough shots to make some of the fouling worth it, blocking 7 on the night and posting a 29.3% Hakeem percentage (block rate + steal rate).
Up next: Oral Roberts
4:30 PM ET | FloSports | Alico Arena (Ft. Myers, FL)
We’re right back at it again this afternoon, matching up with an Oral Roberts squad in full rebuild mode following the hiring of West Virginia assistant Kory Barnett. In the Day 1 nightcap, ORU pushed FGCU, going up by as many as 8 during a game with 15 lead changes, in an eventual 92-88 loss. Four different Golden Eagles hit the 15+ point mark in a balanced outing, with guard Ty Harper scoring 20 and adding 5 assists.
Barnett’s squad is still feeling out the early days of a new regime, but they’re willing to push the pace, will launch about 50% of their field goal attempts from deep, and will probably turn the ball over plenty. Harper will shoulder a massive share of the responsibility, as he takes nearly a third of ORU’s shots and enters the game with a 30.6% usage rate.
Projections
KenPom: KSU 89, ORU 81
Bart Torvik: KSU 89, ORU 77
EvanMiya: KSU 83.8, ORU 77
Vegas: KSU -7.5
Expectations: ORU paid a heavy New Coach Tax in the Summit League’s preseason polling: All the uncertainty led a combo of coaches, SIDs, and media to pick the Golden Eagles last in the nine-team league. So far this year, they’re 2-5, with the only wins coming in non-D1 matchups.
Key stat: 5.6% minutes continuity, per KenPom (306th nationally). Luke Gray is the only returner in ORU’s current rotation as Barnett turned over nearly the entire roster.
Player to watch: #27 Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams, C. Is he the best player? No. Is he most important? Also no. Yamanouchi-Williams is the most interesting to me, though, as a mysterious big man on his fifth different college. He hasn’t found his shooting touch this year, but hit 35.6% (26/45) of his threes in 12 games of action for Portland in the ‘23-’24 season. Block, rebounding, and foul-drawing numbers have all popped at various stages of a career that also includes a stop at Lamar and time with Japan’s U19 national team. I’m intrigued to see Lue/Taylor/Smith take on the assignment this afternoon.
