Farewell to KSU’s pie-in-the-sky playoff dreams. Who among us was irresponsible enough to push that narrative every Sunday morning for the last month? Don’t sell off your Owls stock just yet, though. Our CUSA title hopes are still very much in play, despite the moderate disappointment from the Jax State meltdown that snapped a seven-game winning streak.

Depending on your online sportsbook of choice, Kennesaw might even still have better odds than the Gamecocks to win the CUSA title. FanDuel’s odds fit my personal agenda better, so let’s make every moment more. +210 says the Owls still have about a 32% chance to lift the trophy. What does that tell you about the sustainability of JSU’s win?

We can talk about scenarios next week, since Jax State-WKU could create a nasty three-way tie including two teams that didn’t play each other. No matter what, the Owls need to handle business against a Missouri State squad that’s making the FBS transition look a whole lot easier than it did this time last year. I don’t believe there’s a way to stay in the conversation without beating the Bears.

Let’s take a look under the hood for Saturday afternoon’s matchup.

2 PM ET | ESPN+ | Fifth Third Stadium

Projections
SP+: KSU 29, Mo. State 22
CFB Graphs: KSU 30.6, Mo. State 21.8
FPI: Owls by 5.7
Vegas: Owls -6.5, with a total of 58.5

Saturday’s celebration includes a combination of Kennesaw lifers, converts who stuck around for a few years, and the one-year guys who believed enough in Mack’s blueprint to sign up for the dirty work on the front end of a rebuild. Upwards of 28 players could see recognition, though you never know who’s already plotting a comeback with the NCAA’s ever-changing eligibility rules.

Too often we discuss the portal as the “easy way out,” which feels like an incredible understatement of how difficult it is to mesh into a brand-new team with only one year to play. The emotions obviously hit different for the long-time Owls like Gabe Benyard, but Coleman Bennett, Dexter Williams (who may have a waiver for next year), Antonio Stevens, Caleb Offord, Gerard Bullock and more deserve a moment, too.

Mack said as much during his weekly presser, shouting out every archetype of departing senior: “I’m eternally grateful for this group of guys that trusted me and the staff when they didn’t know us from anything. They came in, they just put their head down, and they worked.”

Let’s also remember the reality that a fair share of other Owls, who aren’t exhausting their college eligibility, will also play their last game in Kennesaw on Saturday. We’ll all have our own guesses on that front.

Kennesaw’s true freshman edge rusher is one of the few players in college football who gets his own entrance music — at least during home games, when Grove St. Party blasts through the Fifth Third Stadium speakers for third downs. Hill has spent most of his freshman year harassing opposing QBs off the bench as part of Mattioli’s pass rush package: Hill comes in off the edge, typically matched up with a right tackle, while Marcus Patterson slides to the interior. Hill leads CUSA in pass rush win rate (18.9%) and sacks (8), despite playing just 211 snaps this season — 73.9% of which have been on pass plays. He’s the football equivalent of a basketball sixth man who comes in with the greenest of green lights to take as many shots as he wants.

No player in America gets pressure at a higher rate on third down than Hill’s 35.8%. Yes, that includes future first rounders like Arvell Reese, Rueben Bain, and any number of guys who already make a lot of money playing football and will continue to do so for a long time. Hill will likely join them in short order, in Kennesaw or elsewhere, and if this game follows the expected script, CUSA’s most effective edge rusher will add to the highlight tape on Saturday.

Clark performs above average to very good in almost every key category, except avoiding sacks and late down EPA. Missouri State, as a team, allows pressure on 38% of drop backs, and -54.61 EPA on sacks/scrambles ranks fourth-worst in the entire country.

When you look at Missouri State’s OL on PFF, the Bears grade out as the worst run blocking unit in CUSA but the best at pass blocking. How does that square if the team allows pressure at the highest level in the league? Clark appears to be the primary culprit here with a bottom 10 pressure-to-sack ratio of 28.2%. Looking at how PFF assigns blame to those pressures, only Skyler Locklear and Amari Odom (uh oh) take a higher share of the responsibility than Cook.

If the Bears give up a ton of pressure, and Clark doesn’t escape very effectively? That sounds like Hill’s theme music just hit, and he’s running in with a steel chair.

Offensive coordinator Nick Petrino — son of Bobby, brother in law of Ryan Beard — calls the shots on offense, his third season calling plays for the Bears. Petrino DNA is still all over this program (sorry, that’s disgusting) from when Bobby came out of retirement in 2020 to take over the program. Nick coached on Bobby’s staff for a few seasons, then stuck around and took the offensive reins for real in 2023. Mo. State will mix it up plenty, both in formation and target, on an offense without a true workhorse in either the passing or running game. Expect plenty of two-back and two TE sets on his call sheet Saturday, making it a big day for Antonio Stevens in the box.

Here’s how Missouri State’s offense stacks up during the CUSA debut: 8th in points per drive, 7th in quality drive rate, 6th in opponent-adjusted EPA/play, 9th in success rate.

A rush rate over expected of -9.6% ranks the Bears as the 8th most pass-happy offense in America, when factoring score, down/distance, etc. The 30,000-foot view from Game On Paper’s radar chart:

Even with some of the pressure struggles, Mack still called Clark the best QB in the league, saying that the sixth-year senior “distributes the ball extremely well to a bunch of different playmakers.” Clark ranks 8th nationally with 21 Big Time Throws, a PFF stat that always makes me laugh but does show a sincere willingness to sling it around the field.

He does have some interesting weapons in a balanced aerial attack, with Jmariyae Robinson taking the smallest target share of any any CUSA wideout. Nobody stands out in a “How are we going to cover this guy?” sense, but the ability to bring down 50/50 balls stands out on tape.

True freshman Tristian Gardner, at 6’2” 180, looks like the best of the bunch. He has been the most productive in terms of both EPA and success rate in that’s otherwise about the quantity of weapons, rather than the quantity. There are enough credible threats out there to keep everyone busy in coverage, though, including RB Ramone Green, who gets plenty of work out of the backfield. One example: Missouri State saw Belcher’s touchdown catch against MTSU on film, and then ran Green on an identical vertical route out of the backfield a few weeks later.

Freshman corner Tay’vion Lawson stepped in for Caleb Offord after the scary injury situation on Saturday night. Ethan Tookes has also filled in at times in spot duty. We’ll probably see a heavier dose of Five Hamilton in the slot, too, as Mattioli leans on him a little bit more against pass-heavy teams. The emergence of HS safety Tywon Christopher at Will linebacker gives an upgrade in coverage and provides a capable option for the Owls without having to run a dime package out there.

In the run game, Missouri State ranks around the bottom third of the league depending on what metric you want to use. In terms of EPA/rush, they’re right in the same ballpark as MTSU, without the top-end talent of Jekail Middlebrook.

The Bears’ running game definitely won’t scare you in the same way as the Cam Cook/Caden Creel combo, but FlU transfer Shomari Lawrence has hit a couple home runs. He and Green are capable enough; this OL just hasn’t been quite up to the task in run blocking and gets stuffed a quarter of the time. They do run a fair amount of two-back stuff, including with Dash Luke (5’8”, 175) involved in the backfield. What scares me the most on the ground? Probably the power read concepts that shredded the Owls a few times against Jacksonville State.

When the Owls have the ball…

To reiterate, the ability to limit explosives feels like a slight red flag for an Owls’ offense that just posted a 81% quality drive rate (reaching the +40), ran 90 plays, didn’t punt…and only scored 26 points. Jax State, in focusing on limiting explosive pass plays, succeeded with roughly the same gamble that Louisiana Tech failed on earlier this year: They dared the Owls to sustain longer drives, forcing them to win in the red zone with the deep choice routes off the menu.

Check out Kennesaw's available yardage gained on each drive (in gold, obviously) from last weekend. That second quarter was an absolute torture chamber, where KSU’s win probability dropped by ~50% by the time Deondre Johnson crossed the goal line on that absurd Hail Mary.

Take a look at the replay of Odom’s second-quarter pick for one example of how things fell apart in the red zone when the field shrinks and the option routes are off the table.

Yes, that’s one of the most careless decisions you’ll ever see from Odom. It was also a non-competitive rep from the beginning, with Benyard and Bullock both getting bullied so badly that they end up setting a pick on each other and taking an entire side of the field out of play. I think this would be the first play entered into evidence as to why the Owls need to roll with Jamari Harrold at tight end or go into true 4WR sets more often.

Against JSU, the Owls tinkered with a way to get the outside WRs more involved by moving Benyard outside, and putting Clayton Coppock in the slot. Benyard is still the best all-around player on the team, but I am coming to the conclusion that Coppock might already be the best true wide receiver. Monitoring hesitation, at least. If you can get those two guys on the field at the same time, plus Moss and a fourth viable pass-catcher, that would ease up the burden on whoever is in the slot.

As for the tendencies we’ll see, the Bears do mix it up a decent amount in the secondary, running quarters (26%), man variations (23%), and Cover 3 (23%) as the most frequent coverages. 90% of the time, Mo State sends only sends 3 or 4 pass rushers 90% of the time, and they’ll line up in a three-man front about 58% of the time. If the Bears learned anything from the Jacksonville State film, they’ll sit back in a mega-deep Cover 3 and force Odom to pick them apart repeatedly. I think the Owls can do that — it’s just a matter of knowing when to pack it in and not toss up jackpot balls with no clear target in sight.

I already brought up Kanye Young as a person of interest in the run game. Here are a few more Bears to watch when Kennesaw has the ball:

If the Militello really empties out the playbook, file away WKU’s direct snaps and a flea flicker as a couple successful concepts to keep an eye on after they tripped up the Bears earlier this season. Wildcat stuff has Chase Belcher’s name written all over it.