Liberty @ Kennesaw State
Thursday, Oct. 22 | 7:00 PM ET | CBS Sports Network | Fifth Third Stadium
Vegas: Flames -9.5
SP+: Liberty 33, KSU 17
FEI: Liberty 33, KSU 19
FPI: Flames by 10.3
Massey: Liberty 28, KSU 20
What’s at stake? Both teams need a result tonight, for wildly different reasons. Off to a 2-0 start in league play, Liberty’s right in the thick of the race to host the CUSA title game. Handling business against one of two remaining winless CUSA teams keeps pace with Jacksonville State at the top of the standings. For the Owls, they can’t quite punt on the rest of the season, with outside hopes at bowl eligibility still technically on the table. It’s a little bit of purgatory, where the team has kept some of these games interesting enough that you can see some flashes of optimism, but the 1-5 outcome feels like low-grade torture.
Liberty’s season so far: 5-1, 3-0 CUSA on #122 strength of schedule to date. To the Flames’ credit, they’ve handled that schedule well enough to earn the #36 Resume SP+ rating nationally. They’re roughly 9 points clear of CUSA’s second-best team, usually Jacksonville State, depending on which power rating you prefer.
Matchup by the numbers
Source: Parker Fleming | @statsowar
Source: Game on Paper
Three stats that matter
Deshawn Purdie: 25.6% pressure-to-sack rate. No CUSA quarterback has less on his plate than Purdie, who transfered in from Wake Forest and won what was at one point referred to as a five-man battle for QB1. He’s mostly recovered from an early-season benching to manage Liberty’s RPO-heavy scheme and hang on to the job. 8 TDs and no picks, but he’s fumbled 5 times so far. He’s not a horrific runner (5.9 yards per attempt, sack-adjusted), but his inability to handle pressure shows up in the sack rate and late down productivity. He ranks dead last among CUSA quarterbacks in usage - they’d much rather rely on the running backs.
Kam Davis: 5 yards after contact per carry. Liberty’s offense veers into modernized service academy territory at times and even uses the A-Back and B-Back terminology. The 224-pound FSU transfer has been the workhorse to this point, racking up 524 yards and 4 TDs. 70% of his damage comes after the first hit, and he’s top 10 nationally in both EPA/carry and rushing success rate.
Average 3rd down distance for Liberty’s defense: 8.54 yards. Can the Owls stay ahead of the chains and avoid the obvious passing situations against a Flames defense that ranks #4 preventing late down conversions? Liberty has four different DL in CUSA’s top 11 of pass rush win rate, led by Michael Floyde - highest in the conference at 22.2%. One wrinkle Liberty tried against Coastal Carolina: Dropping both edges to spy Deuce Bailey, a QB with similar escapability as Rickie Collins.
What else to watch
Tonight wouldn’t be as funny as the double field storm from Bohannon’s zombie Owls in 2024, but it wouldn‘t be far off. Imagine the scenes on Liberty Twitter if Chadwell fumbles the bag against a struggling Owls team again. The collection plate would be going around before the clock hits 0:00. That 2024 game is in their head a little bit, I’m guessing. Same with the War chant.
If I told you that the KSU offense was slightly ahead of the defense at the halfway point, 1-5 would not be the first record that popped into your mind. Interesting test tonight against Liberty’s run-heavy offense. Chadwell’s offense will live in 12 and 21 personnel tonight, something that could play into KSU’s favor. Based on previous personnel usage, that likely means the Owls roll out the linebacker-heavy lineup with Tywon Christopher sliding out to nickel/Sam linebacker and Josh Anglin coming in at Will next to Baron Hopson. They’ll still switch back and forth between three-down and four-down fronts, but I think Mattioli will prefer the extra linebacker, especially considering how banged up the Owls are in the secondary. I don’t think we need to see 60 minutes of Isaac Paul playing in the box, to be honest.
Only one team in the nation moves slower than Liberty’s 31.7 seconds per play. We’re heading for a Georgia State sequel if the Owls can’t land a few early punches. KSU averages just 1.8 points per game in the first quarter (125th nationally), and Liberty will happily slow the game to a crawl and play keepaway if the option’s there. What will the Flames add to the play sheet with the benefit of a bye week to gear up for the Owls?
Liberty’s capable of throwing, though, and Purdie grades out as CUSA’s top-play action passer on PFF, with the Flames going PA/RPO 43.7% of the time. Liberty’s go-to receiver Makai Jackson kinda reminds me of a Kirkland Sammy Watkins. The 6’0, 200-pound wideout found his level again after going from App State to Indiana last year and only getting 5 targets for the national champions. He’s got a 25% target share for the Flames, averages 23 yards per catch, and ranks among the nation’s top 30 wideouts in total EPA. Person and Copeland, Liberty’s other two options at the top of the WR depth chart, are fine but nowhere near the threat of Jackson. Tay’vion Lawson has to be better tonight than he was against Missouri State’s Isaiah Myers. KSU’s corners just haven’t affected opposing receivers this season.
By my count, Liberty has six RBs on the roster with real FBS experience, as Chadwell leaned into his option roots during the offseason roster-build and stocked up at the position behind an OL that brought back 70+% of snaps from last season. There are bigger guys like Davis (FSU) and Kanye Udoh (Arizona State), well-rounded backs like Peyton Jones from Duke, plus homegrown sophomore Jaylon Coleman, Liberty’s little fella at running back, will remind you of KSU’s flexbone at its peak. He’s only 5’9, 155 but averages 9.9 yards per carry on stricly perimeter usage and zero carries between the tackles. They will also invert the backfield and line Coleman up at “fullback” to mess with the defense’s rules.
KSU got Kai Russell back last week, but still seems pretty banged up at the back-end. On the other sideline, Flames safety Jeremiah Vessel looks to be a doubt for tonight. Here’s Chadwell’s full injury status, courtesy of Bryson Gordon from the Lynchburg News & Advance.
CUSA scoreboard
MTSU 26, FIU 23. Terrence Brown rushed for 158 yards for the Blue Raiders, the biggest ground-game performance of the season so far against an FIU defense that was starting to pick up a little bit of national steam.
Delaware 61, Missouri State 38. Nick Minicucci returned at QB for the Blue Hens and promptly scored 6 total TDs, making points against Missouri State look a whole lot easier than KSU did. Delaware will have a few opportunities to play themselves back into the CUSA title race, with three games left against top-half teams.
New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24. We need to take a long look in the mirror and ask ourselves if every single Weekday CUSA game actually needs to be televised. Sam Houston managed two successful plays on offense in the first half and averaged less than a yard per snap.
