JSU "PREVIEW": LOAD MANAGEMENT

See you in Huntsville, when it really matters.

Sometimes I wonder if James Naismith made a mistake inventing basketball. He could’ve left the peach baskets in storage and told those kids to run laps around the YMCA. Instead, he started into motion the timeline that eventually led to that gruesome Kennesaw State-FIU game last Thursday night.

Less than 48 hours later, I believed the Owls could beat Golden State’s 73-9 team. Just schedule the game on a Sunday afternoon and force the Warriors to wear Liberty’s uniforms. The duality of Owls, once again.

Splitting the penultimate weekend clinched a bye in the CUSA tourney, then UTEP’s loss to Sam Houston last night locked Kennesaw into the 4/5 matchup. We know the Owls will open tourney play Thursday against New Mexico State at 6:30 PM ET. We just don’t know yet which team will choose the uniforms. (Maybe I need to track down some analytics on wearing black, gold, and white to see the best choice.)

That’s literally all Kennesaw has on the line in Saturday’s quick trip across the state line to face a Jacksonville State team that’s still alive for the regular season title but would lose out on a tiebreaker with Liberty. Nothing really matters on the final day, when beating the Gamecocks only pushes the Owls into the four seed if the Aggies stumble at Sam Houston.

If CUSA’s head coaches were in a group chat, everyone but Hank Plona (who needs help from UTEP to steal a bye) would probably agree with shutting down the final day. Without much distinction between the 1 and 2 seed, Liberty and JSU would finish tied and could both claim a share of the regular season title. MTSU can’t finish anywhere but 3*, while KSU and NMSU will share the 4/5 lines regardless. Sam Houston and FIU are stuck at 9 and 10, respectively. The two-team race for the 6 seed essentially just boils down to whether LA Tech beats a UTEP team on the outside looking in for a bye. If the Bulldogs slip up, WKU jumps both of them - even in a loss to Liberty. That leaves us with about 1.5 important games tomorrow.

*Please don’t write blog posts at 3 in the morning. That MTSU note is wrong. There’s one strange permutation, currently a +4300 parlay, where the Blue Raiders finish 4th.*

For Kennesaw, what’s the point in really trying to win the finale? There’s not much reason to put unnecessary milage on Adrian Wooley and Simeon Cottle, both of whom rank in the top 250 nationally in minutes share, or other key rotation pieces ahead of the postseason. Why not move on to the NMSU scouting report and try to solve an Aggies defense that trails only Liberty in the efficiency metrics? I love the idea of getting minutes for guys like Ramone Seals and Mekhi Turner in a low-stakes game for the Owls that’s still important for the opponent.

That verges on sacrilegious, I know, especially for those who believe Jacksonville State is an actual rival. I just don’t see the upside to taking this game seriously. In a perfect world, do you want to watch the Gamecocks celebrate a share of the CUSA title on their home court after beating you? Obviously not, though you also don’t want to lessen your postseason chances in Huntsville in a misguided attempt to be the team that stops JSU from raising a secondary banner. Send out the normal starters, if necessary, for some early time to keep the routine on track, let Wooley get a little closer to the KSU freshman scoring record (18 points away), and then call off the dogs to rest up for Thursday.

See you in Huntsville, where it really matters. Here’s the CUSA bracket if Liberty and Kennesaw win on Saturday, and the other three games go chalk:

…and the version where WKU beats Liberty, while KSU sends out Chuck and the lads for 40 minutes:

With the Owls secured in the 4/5, I’d cast a vote for the outcome where Liberty finishes second. KSU’s potential path to the Big Dance, in that case: 1) NMSU with a few extra days of prep, 2) JSU or an 8/9 playing their third game in four days, and 3) Whoever survives that gauntlet on the other side in the final. CUSA’s “everybody beats everybody” vibe didn’t translate to the most meaningful regular season, but almost the entire league will look at their draw and talk themselves into a chance at cutting down the nets.

I held off writing a full preview for Saturday’s game, assuming we’d get a Thursday result that left the season finale mostly a waste of time for the Owls. One of my rare good takes, in hindsight. In the absence of any meaning on Saturday, we can just do a rerun of the advanced stats recap from the first meeting.

If both teams go for it on Saturday — or if they meet in Huntsville — I’m struggling to find a reason why the next time that matters will go much differently. Not to spoil the preview of a potential tourney matchup, but JSU still doesn’t create takeaways (outside the top 350 nationally TO% forced) or get to the free throw line often enough (dead last in CUSA play). That’s not the profile of a team that should scare Owls fans. Out of JSU’s 30 opponents, only NMSU held them to a lower eFG% than Kennesaw’s defensive performance in the conference opener.

Ray Harper’s Gamecocks are a true throwback to the mid-90s: Slow tempo, a heavy dose of mid-range jumpers, a center who stays next to the basket, one guy (JPJ) taking a third of their shots, things of that nature. The cast of Inside the NBA would love these guys, especially if they’re facing an Owls squad in dreaded load management mode. What’d Barkley say a couple seasons ago when Embiid took a few nights off?

“It ain’t like we’re working in the steel mill, brother.”

The computers say…

KenPom: JSU 74, KSU 70
EvanMiya: JSU 73.2, KSU 69.6
T-Rank: JSU 73, KSU 69
BPI: Gamecocks by 6.2