PREVIEW: THE FINAL PRESEASON GAME FOR KENNESAW STATE
Have you ever watched Saturday night Mountain West programming? It's spectacular.
I’m working on a theory that Brian Bohannon and his staff are almost explicitly using the first month of FBS play as a glorified preseason. Do you sell out trying to steal a win against a bowl team, or do you stick to the first couple pages of the playbook and limit risk so your undermanned roster makes it to CUSA intact and somewhat unknown?
The thought may be to survive until the bye week and get healthy, then UT-Martin comes to town in - as crazy as it sounds - the most important game of Bo’s career to this point. After that, you get Jacksonville State, another week off, and a nasty closing stretch in CUSA where you play seven straight games without a bye.
Even with that in mind, the Owls still have another upset opportunity out west tonight against San Jose State in the last of these pseudo preseason games.
Spread: SJSU -18
Total: O/U 43 - SJSU 29.5, KSU 11.5
SP+ Projection: SJSU 35, KSU 14
FPI: SJSU by 19.5
What’s at stake? From a results perspective, Kennesaw State visits San Jose with essentially nothing to lose as heavy underdogs across the country, without the added pressure of the FBS debut or home opener. Yes, it’s the first nationally televised game in program history and provides extra exposure compared to ESPN+. The Mountain West’s TruTV slot is not exactly Big Noon Saturday or ABC primetime, though, and the development can mostly continue without much on the line.
Opposition Research
Cover 3’s Summer School series featured Jackson Moore from Inside the Spartans running through what to expect of this year’s squad.
San Jose State coach Ken Niumatalolo ready to debut new-look Spartan football | San Francisco Chronicle
Preview: San Jose State returns home taking on FBS call-up | Inside the Spartans
Credit to the Owls beat and the sports information crew, which for the first time in what seems like forever joined forces to ask about and publish an injury report. Above is the original list, and here’s Bohannon’s follow-up from this week’s presser, preserved into the historical record by Jon from the Owl Chat Podcast:
DB sounds like he’s in decent shape after getting banged up in the first half against Louisiana. If they didn’t let Khalib Johnson throw in a two-minute drill or play more snaps in garbage time with the starter injured, that QB situation is not nearly as up in the air as some of the speculation would lead you to believe.
Benyard would be the biggest loss, without a doubt. Assuming much of the offensive plan was tailored to him, you wonder how the Louisiana scoreline would’ve ended up had Benyard been able to play more than one drive.
Kent’s usage rate won’t ever be close to Benyard’s - nor should it be - but KSU’s insistence on playing with multiple tight ends means that his injury hits almost as hard. Even if he’s not the first or second option, the Owls don’t have the personnel to use multiple tight ends when he’s on the sidelines. Didn’t stop them from trying it against UL, though.
Billingsley would be an unfortunate absence with a good night needed from the safeties against SJSU’s Run & Shoot-adjacent concepts.
RT Mason Bowers didn’t come up during Bo’s presser, but he was replaced by Seaburn Hines late in the opener and for the entirety of Week 2. Tackle continues to be the most concerning spot on offense.
“What happened to the game I love?” - Paul Johnson
Out of respect for their former boss, Bohannon and Ken Niumatalolo should line up in flexbone for the first snap, regardless of who has the ball, and take a delay of game. It may be the best way for his protégés to pay homage, as the triple option guru won’t love what he sees from two rushing attacks that enter Week 3 with success rates in the bottom five nationwide: KSU at 26.8% and 81 yards/game and SJSU at 26.2% and 57 yards/game.
You’ll find plenty of similarities between Niumatalolo and Bohannon, most notably in how they’ve been forced to revise their offensive philosophies to account for rule changes and professional ambition. Back in 2018, star Arizona QB Khalil Tate torpedoed Niumatalolo’s opportunity with the Wildcats, firing off - then deleting - a simple post with his take on the flexbone system amid rumors that the Navy HC was heading west.
Not long after his flirtation with Arizona, Navy trailed off with three consecutive losing seasons prior to his dismissal in 2022. Niamatulolo spent last season hanging out with Chip Kelly at UCLA, then made it known that the flexbone was out of the picture when he took over for Brent Brennan in San Jose. He hired Craig Stutzmann as OC, and the Spartans installed the Spread-n-Shred, a Run & Shoot variant with RPOs in the mix. The shredding part hasn’t quite happened yet during a sloppy-ish start, yet SJSU enters the game 2-0 coming off their first-ever win against Air Force.
Bohannon’s own Niamatulolo-lite career arc the last few seasons - two straight losing seasons, no D1 wins in nearly 700 days, reported unrequited interest in a job elsewhere - puts him in an interesting position during the FBS debut, especially as the overhauled offense still searches for answers. One CPJ disciple handed the keys to an outside hire with a fleshed-out system; the other promoted a long-time assistant and his most successful flexbone QB to team up as first-time coordinators and create something on the job.
Good luck finding many takeaways from the Owls’ offensive performance against Louisiana worth carrying over to Week 3. Once Benyard and Kent went out, the focus shifted to survival mode, especially once it was clear Louisiana’s offense could run at will. Between the opening drive - a throwback, 16-play grind down the field - and a field goal drive once garbage time arrived, the Owls never gained more than 30 yards on a possession while the game got away from them.
It’s tough to say they didn’t want to win, but it’s clear Bohannon and the staff aren’t willing to empty the clip on offense chasing games while already down a couple scores. Some big-picture offensive notes that stand out to me:
Only 7 play action/RPO concepts across two full games. Even if a few haven’t been properly categorized by PFF, that’s still miles behind the near 50% PA/RPO rate from 2023. Same with the limited screen calls: There are ways they can make life easier for Bryson behind the rebuilt OL, but they’ve mostly been kept under wraps.
Scripted opening drives are averaging 4.49 EPA. Everything else: -0.89 EPA/drive
Despite trailing for nearly 7 full quarters, runs still make up 63% of the offense, even with passing plays being worth .1 EPA per play more than runs so far.
Moral of the story: Let’s wait until OC Chandler Burks calls the full offense, with a full lineup, before panicking too much about the long-term direction of the new system. Certainly hasn’t been fun to watch in the early stages, though.
I don’t love the timing of catching SJSU immediately after the Spartans held Air Force below 3 yards per play, with option principles fresh in their mind. MLB Jordan Pollard leads the Spartans in tackles and racked up 17 against the Falcons, but OLBs Taniela Latu and Ethan Powell are more important to keep an eye on, at least in terms of how the Owls offense wants to operate. The option game has been mostly kept in check to this point, and if SJSU continues with a three down linemen, Latu and Powell will end up as the read key more often than not.
Looking on the bright side: This is the least physically imposing front seven we’ve seen thus far. Does that mean the Owls can block them? Well, you probably know the answer there. I do feel slightly better depth chart scouting than I did while looking at some of the monsters up front from UTSA.
Even a certified non-ball-knower like me can see that Nick Nash jumps out as the key piece in the Spread-n-Shred offense. How the Owls handle Nash in the slot (where he spends 92% of snaps) is the most important assignment in DC Greg Harris’ plan for Saturday night. Nash has gotten more than twice the targets of any other SJSU receiver, racking up 17 catches, 260 yards, and 3 scores in the first two games.
UTSA - and to a lesser extent Louisiana, as they didn’t really need to throw - found most of their success creating miscommunications in coverage and confusions with switches, rather than relying on winning one-on-one matchups. You didn’t see Owls defenders getting worked in coverage as much as you saw receivers and backs running almost by themselves, especially on some of those early drives in the Alamodome.
Forcing hesitant defenders to face option routes is the central thesis of the Spread-n-Shred. SJSU’s new offense has limited tape so far, but you’ll see their bigger receiver group lining up in 2x2 and 3x1 sets and tight end usage that switches back and forth between inline and the slot. Back when Stutzmann coached under Nick Rolovich at Washington State, Coug Center put together a good breakdown of the choice concept that we’ll see in heavy doses. Definitely worth a read to get a feel for what to expect from a key aspect of the Spartans’ offense.
SJSU’s lack of success in the run game puts a lot of responsibility on the arm of Wazzou transfer Emmett Brown, who’s hovering around the top 30 or so in passing success rate and EPA/dropback despite a higher degree of difficulty on an ADOT of 14 yards. He’s only completing 55% of his passes, however, and has already tried to force some balls into insane spots so far this season.
Likely the most important position on Saturday, Kennesaw State’s safeties have been a work in progress this season with Markeith Montgomery and Deontre Morris out of the picture. As Billingsley looks likely to miss out, safeties Milon Jones and Isaac Paul, along with Spur linebackers Jaiden Kimble and Jalen Barnum, will be in the spotlight as Stutzmann does whatever he can to manipulate matchups for his receivers.
If Harris wants to take off a LB and get a third corner on the field more often to combat the 4WR looks, Jayven Williams will have a big opportunity for the Owls tonight. The redshirt sophomore graded out among KSU’s top three performers in Week 1 against a pass-heavy offense that tried to do some similar things.
As if the Run & Shoot concept weren’t enough to worry about, Nash is also a converted QB who already threw a touchdown on a double pass this year. That was the kind of stuff keeping Harris up last night.
Elsewhere, nose tackle Pooda Walker will be another Owl with a chance to make an major impact against an interior OL group that has started the season slowly and will missing Marist Talavou in the first half. Here’s how PFF graded SJSU’s guards and centers the first two games:
LG - Sione Nomani - 44.1
C - Hudson Mesa - 46.0
RG - Uluakinofo Taliauli - 62.0, Talavou 45.5
More than half of the Spartans’ designed runs came between the two B gaps, giving Walker a prime chance to eat up space in the middle. In pass blocking situations, Nomani, Mesa, and Talavou all grade out at sub-45, so between Walker, blitzing MLBs and other stunts, the interior looks like the best path forward for putting pressure on an SJSU offense that allows a 17.1% havoc rate - one of the worst in the nation.