Where does Kennesaw State stack up in the final SP+ preseason revision? Well, the Owls actually got worse over the summer, sliding from a -9.3 (105th in the nation) at the time of Connelly’s always excellent CUSA preview, to a -12.9 this week as he dialed in all the inputs of his system.
Overall: 114
Offense: 111
Defense: 103
Special Teams: 127
Average Wins: 6.6
Strength of schedule: 104
Returning production: 49% (#87)
Here’s the full SP+ view of Conference USA:
88. Liberty: -5.3
94. WKU: -7.3
95. Jacksonville State: -7.8
113. Delaware: -12.9
114. Kennesaw State: -12.9
115. FIU: -14.5
125. New Mexico State: -18.5
126. Missouri State: -19.1
134. Sam Houston -26.0
135. MTSU -26.5
In the non-conference, Kennesaw will match up with 14th-ranked Tennessee, 106th-ranked Arkansas State, and a Georgia State team projected to be four points worse than Brian Bohannon’s final Kennesaw team. Imagine we kept digging when we hit rock bottom. Truly troubling times for Dell McGee, whose Panthers will be the first of three teams KSU sees from the bottom five in the nation. FCS numbers and cross-subdivision adjustments aren’t available yet. If we chalk the Owls up as favorites against West Georgia (-23.5 on the board at FanDuel), SP+ would pick the Owls as at least slight favorites in 7 games.
If you pull out the two buy-game outliers of West Georgia and Tennessee to get a G6-only comparison, Kennesaw State’s schedule ends up being a slightly weaker away from the friendly confines of Fifth Third Stadium. WKU is the only CUSA team the Owls will visit that Connelly’s system ranks in the top 125 out of 138 FBS teams.
Average home rating: -14.0
Average away rating: -18.1
Using the latest SP+ and FPI power ratings (plus a 2.5-point home-field advantage), let’s take a look at the full slate to check how the computers see Kennesaw’s season playing out.
Game 1: West Georgia @ KSU
SP+: TBA
FPI: TBA
Game 2: Georgia State @ KSU
SP+: Owls by 18.9
FPI: Owls by 8.7
Game 3: KSU @ Tennessee
SP+: Vols by 32.7
FPI: Vols by 26.6
Game 4: KSU @ Arkansas State
SP+: Red Wolves by 3.8
FPI: Red Wolves by 2.3
Game 5: Jax State @ KSU
SP+: Gamecocks by 2.6
FPI: Owls by 2
Game 6: KSU @ Missouri State
SP+: Owls by 3.7
FPI: Bears by 1.2
Game 7: Liberty @ KSU
SP+: Flames by 5.1
FPI: Owls by 1.2
Game 8: KSU @ Middle Tennessee State
SP+: Owls by 11.1
FPI: Owls by 4.6
Game 9: Delaware @ KSU
SP+: Owls by 2.5
FPI: Owls by 0.1
Game 10: KSU @ Sam Houston
SP+: Owls by 10.6
FPI: Owls by 6.9
Game 11: FIU @ KSU
SP+: Owls by 4.1
FPI: Owls by 6.1
Game 12: KSU @ Western Kentucky
SP+: Toppers by 8.1
FPI: Toppers by 6.6
