PREVIEW: THE FIRST STEINER BOWL
Normally, if you go one-on-one with another team, you got a 50% chance of winning.
Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State may have the perfect “rivalry” for college football in the 2020s. Contested only four times and fueled almost entirely by like a dozen internet trolls, the way we discuss this series is aspirational more than anything backed up offline. If you trained an AI model on 150 years of college football conflict, this game would be the result: A decent replica at first glance, but the imitation doesn’t have much substance.
You should be a little skeptical when fans hype this up as Hate Week or officials like Kennesaw AD Milton Overton try to create a name for the series, rather than letting it happen organically. Do we actually despise each other, or are we just two overlooked programs desperate for an antagonist somewhere nearby? The Gamecocks side in particular seems intent on a strange Iron Bowl cosplay act, as the two small armies of fans went to war with aggressively unfunny memes all week.
We’ve fantasy booked a feud into existence despite no relevance in the real world. No matter how many overtimes you play, trying to force a rivalry after four games - only one of which had any stakes - and a bulk order of cigars will always feel hollow. There’s no doubt the rivalry will come in due time: Put two insecure fan bases this close together, in the same conference, and hatred will come naturally. Despite the best attempts on both sides of the state line, it doesn’t feel authentic yet.
I can’t blame you for buying into this manufactured rivalry, though. We all need to find a way to keep us engaged this season. Either way, you can’t expect much heat on Friday night in the first Conference USA edition of the young series. One side expects a blowout win; the other just wants to fast forward.
Spread: Kennesaw State +16.5
Total: O/U 49
Team Totals: JSU 32.5, KSU 15.5
SP+ Projection: JSU 33, KSU 20
PREGAME READING
MDJ - Marietta's Jones Making Mark on KSU's Defense | The domino effect of Milon Jones getting more reps? Greg Harris can try ideas like Sidney Porter at OLB.
AL.com - Jacksonville State set to open Conference USA play against rival Kennesaw State | A+, Spurrier-level condescension from Rich Rod, talking to AL.com this week about Kennesaw State’s offense and how hard it was to play in the rain.
MDJ - KSU Faces Familiar Foe in CUSA Opener | Taking a look at a Jacksonville State squad that has “found it’s rhythm” after an 0-3 start.
GHOST OF COACHING CHANGES YET TO COME
Brian Bohannon’s Owls took - and failed - a test at homecoming against UT Martin, the kind of team they’d like to leave behind in FCS. Against the Gamecocks, Kennesaw State will try to catch up against a program that gives a look at what could’ve been if the transition went differently.
We don’t need to do the full will-they-or-won’t-they take cycle on Bo’s job this week, because:
The typical forces that cause coaching changes don’t exist here, so it’s a waste of time to think about Kennesaw State the same way we would discuss the situations at Florida or other hot seats du jour.
For better or worse, he’s not coaching like a guy who thinks he’s at risk.
What does interest me on the coaching front this week is how Kennesaw’s current situation lines up with what JSU experienced just a few years ago in the early stages of their own FCS to FBS transition. John Grass, by all measures other than head-to-head record, outperformed Bohannon at the FCS level: six conference titles in 8 seasons, more wins overall, and an appearance in the national title game.
A day after announcing their move to FBS, Jacksonville State made a “mutual” decision to part ways with Grass ahead of the jump and arrange chess pieces for the future. He was 4-5 with an FBS upset earlier that fall. That kind of ruthless, pragmatic decision didn’t happen in Kennesaw.
“My time has come and gone here,” Grass said. “It’s been a great ride.”
JSU’s athletic director outlined the next steps: "With an exciting time on the horizon for Jacksonville State and Gamecock Football, we feel that the interest in our head coaching position will greater than it ever has been. We will begin a nationwide search for our next coach, who will lead us into the FBS."
Didn’t take long for the Gamecocks to get their guy. Rich Rod took over less than three weeks later and led JSU to nine wins in both transition seasons, with a walkoff New Orleans bowl win to cap their FBS debut.
Don’t think too hard about this one, really. You can go all chalk while picking Jacksonville State’s impact players for Friday night. Let’s skip the smart guy charade of trying to come up with a random slot receiver or backup linebacker to unlock the game. Just focus on the obvious choice on both sides of the ball: QB Tyler Huff and Jaylen Swain, a preseason second-team All-CUSA selection at DE.
Who else but Huff on offense? Kirkland-brand Baker Mayfield (a compliment, I promise) returns to Kennesaw a little over a year after putting on a show for Furman. Huff’s 316 total yards and 4 rushing TDs carried the playoff-bound Paladins to a win, in what, coincidentally, was the last time the Owls played well on both sides of the ball. If the game ends up close at any point, Huff could be the guy to give this “rivalry” some bad blood after some extracurricular activity on a few plays last fall.
On a week-to-week basis, nobody will mistake Jacksonville State’s defense for the ‘85 Bears. They’ve given up 35 or more points three times already, have success rates in the high 120s nationally, and their middle-of-the-pack run defense ends up being the closest thing to a bright spot. None of that matters against the irreparably broken Kennesaw State offense.
A redshirt senior success story of JSU’s transition, Swain will mostly line up in the vicinity of Owls LT Jacob Kettels. The Montana State transfer grades out at a 52.8 on the year and 25.8 in pass blocking via PFF. Last time out against Southern Miss, Swain picked up four pressures, and he ranks inside the top 30 nationwide in tackles for loss. There’s even some history with Swain as the DE recovered the game-winning fumble last time these two teams met. Take your pick on which Gamecock stars on defense - I’ll just make the easy call and keep it moving.
Some of the projected scores look a little friendlier than expected given the underlying numbers. JSU’s brutal 0-3 start to the season doesn’t help their analytic case, but the 13-point SP+ margin caught me a bit off guard. There’s a strong possibility the Owls offense has legitimately broken contain on math with historic inefficiency.
Our friends in the desert opened up the line inside two touchdowns, a number the market has since bet up to 16.5. Looking through the usual Game on Paper preview, profile radars, and Parker Fleming’s side-by-side comparison at College Football Insiders, I’m struggling to find a source of optimism that they’ll keep it within that number. Let’s just supersim this one, get to the bye week, and catch MTSU in a couple Tuesdays.
* Bad vibes subject to change once I get to the stadium and have exactly (2) Owl In lagers. *
A few other stats/notes that stood out in previewing the game:
Pretty cool chart this week on personnel, playcalling, and results for the first four games of Chandler Burks’ tenure as OC. Look at those heavy box numbers - yikes.
Jax State’s 18.9% stuff rate on defense is in the top half of the country, and their average EPA/play against the run comes close to FBS average, too. That’s more than enough against an Owls offensive line that couldn’t block even if you handed each guy a weapon.
OK, I lied. One slot receiver: JSU’s Michael Pettway checks in at 20.2 yards/catch and 3.08 yards/route run. Christian Moss (1.69) is the only KSU WR over 1.5 yards on the year, for reference. Pettway, at 5’10” and 175 pounds, will test the Owls in a different way than the bigger target of SJSU’s Nick Nash earlier in the season. That doesn’t make the job much easier.
Do we have a Steiner Bowl on our hands tonight? Bronson Rechsteiner’s cousin Brock plays receiver for the Gamecocks, leaving the Steiner family as a House Divided. WWE will be in Atlanta for a pay-per-view on Saturday night, so there’s a 141 2/3% chance that Bronson, his dad and uncle will be in attendance. They might not recognize the KSU program in its current state.