Kennesaw State’s rivalry with Jacksonville State has finally hit cruising altitude, with a slightly subdued atmosphere after a couple seasons of existential crises and CUSA championships on both sides. There’s nothing wrong with taking out the title fight stakes and playing a regular ol’ football game between two programs that don’t like each other.
In case you need any extra motivation, KSU dusted off Milton Overton to deliver a pregame message that instantly vaults into the football speech Hall of Fame alongside Al Pacino’s “game of inches”, Billy Bob Thornton telling the Permian Panthers about being perfect, and other iconic moments of that nature. Truly inspiring stuff from our fearless leader that will make you want to run through a brick wall this afternoon.
Before we jump into the matchup, big thanks to our friends from Section 103 for jumping on board and sponsoring this week’s preview. High-quality merch is an essential part of the fan experience, one not often taken seriously at our level. That’s not the case over at Section 103, where they’ve created an elite selection of gameday polos, comfortable t-shirts/sweatshirts, and more products that go beyond slapping a logo on low-quality fabric and using a poorly edited stock photo to sell it to you. Check out their Kennesaw State collection below, and don’t forget to plug in promo code HOOT for 10% off your first order.
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State
Wednesday, Oct. 7 | 7:00 PM | CBS Sports Network | Fifth Third Stadium
Vegas: Gamecocks -3, Total: 50.5
SP+: JSU 30, KSU 23
FEI: JSU 26, KSU 25
FPI: Owls by 1.5
Massey: JSU 27, KSU 24
Jacksonville State’s season so far: 3-2 (1-0 CUSA), with a blowout loss to North Dakota State in Week 0 and a couple coin flip G6 games that went 50/50 (4 OT loss against Ohio, 31-27 win over Georgia Southern) on the resume. Charles Kelly’s Gamecocks opened the CUSA schedule with a 10-point win over MTSU that probably could’ve been a three-score game, according to the SP+ postgame win expectancy (projected margin of 17 points).
They’re roughly still in the same +450 to +500 range to win CUSA as they were during the summer, much like how the Owls are still hovering around that +1000 mark.
Matchup charts: Game on Paper and CFB Graphs
Three stats that matter
Via CFB Data: Kennesaw State ranks dead last in the nation at creating explosive pass plays, but 6th in terms of preventing them on defense. On the other hand, Jacksonville State’s defense sits in the top 20 in preventing the explosive play. A hard reset is likely for the Owls after losing WR Zion Booker for the year, which could provide a chance to start turning that number around.
Caden Creel: 65.5% offensive usage, 11th in the country. If you were wondering who would take over for WVU transfer Cam Cook as the high volume engine of the offense, they’re building the entire plane out of Caden Creel with a rotating cast of characters next to him in the backfield. He ranks fourth nationally in rushing usage, getting 42.1% of Jacksonville State’s non-garbage time carries. Out of the 79 QBs with 25+ carries, however, Creel only ranks 73rd in yards after contact, 73rd in forcing missed tackles, and 62nd in explosive run rate. There’s a bit of a Happy Learned How to Putt improvement that shows up in Creel’s overall productivity compared to last season, when he started the year as a punt returner. How much of that is sustainable?
JSU allows a 53.1% rushing success rate - 122nd in the country. As Jax State sells out to prevent the deep ball, there’s nothing Mack and Militello would love more than being able to chew up some yardage on the ground. KSU averaged 36 carries across the two meetings last season and got the QB double-digit rushing attempts both times. Using Collins on the ground is one of the few above average elements of this offense so far, and he’s actually been a little more effective than Creel on the year in terms of down-to-down productivity. In the interest of fairness, KSU ranks even lower in rushing success rate allowed - 136th in the nation. Ground game shootout on deck?
Impact player(s), non-Caden Creel and Caleb Nix division: Every healthy inside linebacker for the Gamecocks. Mac Sanders and Walker O’Steen both went down with season-ending injuries, leaving a lot of responsibility for a linebacker-forward defense. Myles Butler and Jameson McCollough took most of the reps against MTSU, but Charles Kelly named basically every dude on the roster when asked about the position at his weekly press conference. The whole bend-but-don’t-break philosophy rests on these dudes fitting light boxes and making plays underneath of a long group of DBs.
What does Jacksonville State get out of Creel’s supporting cast? We already hit the usage numbers on Creel, who runs around like a Backyard Football character as the centerpiece of the offense. Nobody on the unit will really overwhelm you, but the Gamecocks look competent enough under new OC Taylor Housewright - promoted from tight ends coach during the offseason. From PFF, take a look at how the Gamecocks’ project to line up on offense. The Gamecocks are kinda average everywhere on offense, which goes a long way in CUSA and is more than we can say about the Owls at this stage.
In terms of guys the Owls must account for, 6’8” wideout Deondre Johnson returns from 2025 and may or may not have cured his dropsies from a year ago. Kinda smart play from Kelly and Co. to combat the QB/WR market to give your limited QB a dude with an NBA wingspan at receiver and just post him up downfield. Underrated wrinkle to watch is how much they get him involved in the slot tonight, especially if KSU is still banged up at nickel and/or trying to use linebackers in coverage. Some weird matchups across the board with this JSU offense, especially when they run Creel in empty formations.
What does the injury report look like? We’ll get our first wide-ranging health check-up of the season in the lead-up to tonight’s game. With the lack of serious media coverage (a non-KSU employee has asked a grand total of one question through five weeks of the season), Baron Hopson’s rolled ankle and Zion Booker’s season-ender are the only two injuries we’ve gotten much information about. Donovan Westmoreland is still absent, and the DBs are clearly banged up enough to where true freshman Jordan Holmes plays big minutes at corner and in slot coverage coming off a knee injury that ended his HS career. We could also use an update on TE Gerard Bullock.
Does Kennesaw State finally show some upside? If you want to view the non-conference slate through an optimistic (or coping) lens, the Owls enter CUSA play without any new questions. Everything we’re concerned with at the moment - lack of downfield passing threat, almost nonexistent pass protection, depth up front on defense - is largely what most people would’ve picked out before the season even started. I don’t think the negative reaction has been proportionate to actual results: Georgia State might be legitimately good, as nauseating as that is to type, and the Owls probably should’ve beaten Arkansas State. Both buy games played out exactly as expected. It seems like a lot of the anxiety out of the fan base comes from the fact that the Owls haven’t shown much indication toward hitting the ceiling at this point, even if the floor hasn’t dropped by much. Tonight’s not quite a now-or-never moment, not at this stage of the season, but it‘s not far off.
A large part of finding the ceiling comes from how the Owls respond to the loss of Booker. I tried to dive into that topic earlier this week: Can the Owls find some . It’s a little bit of a strength on weakness matchup for the Owls, who bring the least explosive passing attack up against a team that will play its safeties a mile deep and dare you to march down the field without making mistakes. I’m actually optimistic that we could see a jump in production tonight, though, if for no other reason than because KSU has no choice but to try something different.
Can the Owls give Rickie Collins any sort of time? Nothing will change in the passing game if Collins is still running for his life against three- and four-man pass rushes. If Milovac and Lee give a fifth consecutive non-competitive outing tonight, I don’t see how the Owls can avoid making a change in some form, whether that’s trying Luke Duska, Zamario Woodgett, or Enrico Maghelli - the freshman IMG product who made an appearance as a backup on the depth chart this week. To get an idea of the matchups, here’s how Jacksonville State sets up on the line of scrimmage.
Tae Floyd seems like the clear danger based on alignment, usage, and havoc created. Facing a majority three-down front might be a little helpful, at least in terms of surviving the initial rush. Opposing defenses are only blitzing Collins 25.2% of the time so far, and he’s actually completing passes at a higher rate (74.1% vs. 66.3%) for a slightly better YPA (6.9 vs. 6.3) when teams send extra pressure. KSU has seemingly picked up the blitz decently; the true pass set, man-on-man stuff in obvious passing downs is where the tackles just get erased almost every time.
Compare that to the 48.7% blitz rate JSU sent after Amari Odom in the title game last season. Interesting chess match to watch, because even in the context of the two matchups last season, Kelly’s defense was more than happy to sit back and wait for a red zone mistake. Worked for JSU once, burned them the second time around. Interesting chess match, particularly with the Gamecocks down a couple linebackers. Three meetings in the span of a calendar year give the chalkboard and headset battle a ton of extra layers.
Can the Owls start hitting on dart and counter more often? That‘s a hidden backslide this season and another factor to watch tonight against Jax State’s odd front.
Pregame media
I can’t and won’t co-sign the attempted rivalry nickname (feels a little thirsty from the Jax State side in particular), but the Owl Chat Podcast put together an in-depth scouting report that’s worth a listen. Barclay’s on to something talking about ramping up Rickie’s designed QB run usage as the games become more important.
From the betting angle, Action Network’s analysis of the game was pretty sharp, too - not just because Kennesaw State +3 was their pick. Creel’s volume doesn’t seem sustainable and this version of the Gamecocks feels just about maxed out. Certainly possible the Owls don’t find that upside tonight, but I think it’s telling that this line never really moved despite the current perception from the KSU fan base.
KSU Owls dot com also continued the Parliament Profile series with a look at Boogie Woods, who may or may not be taking control of the RB room after a month-ish of Mack and Co. pushing the “three-headed monster” line.
