Georgia State and Kennesaw State aren’t rivals in the traditional sense. College football’s old-school conflicts have a trench warfare quality to them: Two powers meet up in a field to shoot each other in the face, reload, and then do it again.

With just 27 combined football seasons, Saturday night’s game is much more contemporary - an under-the-radar feud between two developing countries that haven’t quite declared war. There’s a little bit of espionage, some cyber attacks, a ton of foreign influence (UGA, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, and so on), and maybe a drone strike from time to time. We’ve been at war in a rivalry without acknowledging it for the better part of two decades. The battles just happen far away from the field, in the form of recruiting pitches, Board of Regents meetings, marketing decks, and every “why not us” comparison you can imagine.

Contrary to KSU’s theme song, they do want to go to war. There’s only one more game on the books (2028) for now, but it only makes sense to continue the series next time the schools have space in the schedule. Both sides have seen every piece of college football history and realized the rivalry industrial complex looks like good business. Separated by 25 miles, the two programs will always face direct comparisons, anyway, especially since one’s success will usually line up with a downturn at the other program. PantherTalk’s Ben Moore has previously reported that Brian Bohannon attempted to defect downtown for the GSU opening. Dan Ellington’s on the Panthers’ Mount Rushmore and thew the killshot the only time the programs met previously, a 24-20 Panthers victory when the Owls were still FCS. He’s now on the right side of history as Kennesaw’s wide receiver coach.

Our most clear comparison in recent memory came as KSU bottomed out during the first Conference USA season. The Dell McGee era peaked by hosting and beating an SEC program. All the New Atlanta hype paid off, and they knocked off a Diego Pavia-led Vanderbilt team in the dying seconds. Just for posterity, I would like to revisit a post of mine fired off while comparing the bleak scenes at Fifth Third Stadium with the party downtown.

One of my worst takes ever, as it turns out.

Since that night at Center Parc Stadium, Georgia State has gone 1-19 against FBS programs. In Kennesaw, new HC Jerry Mack overhauled an inherited 2-10 football team, flipped the roster himself, then lifted a CUSA trophy. On Saturday night, he has a chance to prove he’s rebuilt his program twice before McGree can do it once.

For all the mentions about 2018, I’m pulling a different game from the archives, one that happened the week after KSU fell to UT-Martin. Jacksonville State came into town for the CUSA opener, fresh off a successful transition of their own. The Owls couldn’t handle the level they were trying to leave behind, and then got hammered by a team already doing what looked impossible in our new conference. I’m not saying Kennesaw will hang 60 on Georgia State. All the potential excuses - late coaching change, roster flips, budget, etc. - are off the table, though. Saturday night gives us a true comparison of the two programs and brings this proxy war rivalry to the actual playing field.

After years of looking up and punching down, KSU has never matched up with an in-state opponent in the same weight class. One of my first posts ever on this site compared the basketball series to Georgia’s intercontinental title - we’re all just fighting for attention in the mid-card. Nobody in Atlanta’s legacy media seems to care about this game, and Georgia Tech will host Tennessee at the same time downtown.

All the Owls and Panthers can do is put on a good match and hope the heat follows.

Saturday, Sept. 12 | 7:00 PM | ESPN+ | Fifth Third Stadium

Vegas: Owls -8.5, O/U: 54.5
SP+: Kennesaw 36, Georgia State 19
FEI: Kennesaw 29.9, Georgia State 23.7
FPI: Owls by 9.6
PFF: Owls by 7.1
Massey: Kennesaw 30, Georgia State 27

HOOT System: Kennesaw 24, Georgia State 13. A little higher on the margin than all the non-SP+ sources, and lower than the entire world against the total. There’s shootout potential, though.

Last week for the Panthers: GSU 59, NC A&T 10. We were never going to learn much about either team against outgunned FCS competition. Kennesaw and GSU both passed whatever syllabus week “test” came their way and were able to pull the starters a drive or two into the second half. If you’d like to dip into the SP+ 772 (Bill Connelly’s cross-division power ratings) to compare whose cupcake was worse, West Georgia would be favored by 15 points on a neutral field against NC A&T - the 395th best team in the sport.

Picking Cameran Brown feels a little cheap. The former West Georgia and Texas Tech transfer took over as Georgia State’s QB1 midseason and provided an immediate upgrade over TJ Finley and Christian Veilleux. Brown’s back earned some praise from Mack as a “true dual-threat” whose growth as a passer shows up on film. He posted a similar night to Collins in the opener: 15/20 for 190 yards and 2 TD.

If we assume Brown’s the headliner for Georgia State, who else will be important on Saturday night?

TE Grant Hollier. One of the biggest takeaways from Georgia State’s opener was how often the Panthers lined up in 12 and 21 personnel. In 6’5”, 260-pound Matt Buron, they found a bigger partner with more credibility as a blocker, allowing the staff to get more creative with the Hollier’s usage. As a true freshman, he scored 4 touchdowns on 33 targets and lined up as a WR on more than half his passing downs. He’s likely the most important chess piece for the Georgia State offense on Saturday.

DE/OLB Xavier Esqillion. A Spiderman meme situation with KSU’s Kai Russell: Both are 6’1, 250-ish SIAC transfers from Charlotte coming in to bolster G6 front lines in need of some immediate assistance on the edge. Esqillion posted 22 career sacks at Savannah State and hit the ground running with 6 pressures and a 53.8% win rate against NC A&T. Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson also returns after grading out as PFF’s worst edge rusher in the Sun Belt last season.

RB Lanear McCrary, Jr. There’s an alternate reality where McCrary joined Mack’s three-headed monster at running back. KSU offered the Shorter transfer early in his portal journey after he rushed for 1,000 yards and 9 TDs. He led a crowded backfield-by-committee last week, picking up 75 yards and a TD in his GSU debut behind the blocking of Iowa State transfer Deylin Hasert, another portal target for KSU. True freshman Qwantavius Wiggins will be breathing down his neck at RB, and the former Wisconsin signee already got in the mix Week 1.

Does Georgia State have any answers for the Kennesaw offense? The biggest indictment of McGee’s tenure has been his total inability to access the Kirby Smart coaching tree and field a competitive defense. He’s a running back coach by trade, but if you spend that many years in Athens with some of the sharpest defensive minds in the sport, surely you can find some rising defensive coaches to put together a competitive defense in Atlanta.

…or maybe not. They’ve only held 4 FBS opponents below 30 points across McGee’s two seasons at the helm. Of the 16 categories tracked in Game on Paper’s defensive radar charts, they’ve only finished top half in FBS in one category over that timeframe - pass explosiveness allowed in 2024.

McGee brought in another pair of co-DCs during the offseason, with play-calling duties handled by Cam Clark - most recently an offensive analyst at Duke. Last time Clark was in charge of a defense, Owls LB Tywon Christopher was his star player on the way to winning a state title as DC at Thomas County Central. Prior to that, Clark served as DC for a 2-10 Western Illinois team that gave up 38 point per game in an admittedly brutal Missouri Valley Conference.

To deal with the Veer and Hoot offense, I wonder if McGee and his defensive braintrust tap in to the three-high safety solution that Georgia has used against Tennessee in years past. Make the call to Glenn Schumann, at least. Last season’s 44-41 UGA win is the first time during the Josh Heupel era that the Vols have put up more than 17 points in the series. Does Georgia State have the dudes to run something like this on defense?

Probably not, if we’re being real. I’m a little skeptical in a safety room that looks vulnerable to the RPO and I don’t know that former KSU LB Jaden Kelly can be the answer if he’s pulled away from the core of the defense. Does GSU have enough talent to overcome a potential lack of cohesion? GSU’s inexperienced DC and limited continuity make a scary combo against an offense moving at 100MPH.

To that point, McGee sounds a little nervous about the Owls’ tempo, hitting the topic constantly across a couple different media availabilities this week. I watch a ton of CFB press conferences (god, what a sad sentence) and have never heard an opposing coach drive the point home much harder than McGee. One example:

Side note: Please pass the message to KSU’s broadcast crew, which continues to run instant replays during live action against West Georgia, while also reminding us how fast the Owls move. Yeah, we know.

Can Rickie Collins and the Owls pose a downfield threat? We can safely assume the running game isn’t improving on last week’s six-TD outing. There’s plenty of room for the aerial attack to develop, though. Dylan Gary and Zion Booker, who got a shoutout from McGee during media availability this week as an “outstanding” receiver, boosted their stock in the Week 1 blowout. The pair of transfers combined for 12 catches on 13 targets, yet finished with average depth of targets under 4 yards. Speedster Javon Rogers (29.7 yards) and Davis Bryson (13.0) were the only two Owls to see time with the starters and finish with an ADOT further than four yards downfield. Collins also only played one second-half drive and the Owls didn’t really need to push the issue. You’d like to see Brayden Munroe (only 2 targets vs. UWG) get more involved and for the entire room to stretch the field vertically against a team where deep ball will be much more necessary.

What sticks on defense from the West Georgia game? The Wolves wouldn’t have scored if the game lasted ten hours. How much could we really learn? One of the lingering questions did get an answer in the process: What’s Josh Anglin’s role in this defense? Depth piece or will he push Baron Hopson and Tywon Christopher for playing time? Neither, as it turns out. The Tulsa transfer and one-time FCS freshman All-American is going to play right next to them.

KSU spent a good chunk of the West Georgia game matching 12 personnel with Anglin on the field as an extra off-ball linebacker in a traditional 4-3, with Tywon Christopher to the passing strength. That’s a changeup from last season, where the typical substition was to replace the nickel with another safety and move Antonio Stevens (or a comparable player) closer to the line. I think - emphasis on think - Kennesaw’s building up a “base” 4-3 as a response to some of the run-heavy offenses they’ll see in CUSA - namely Jacksonville State and Liberty with multiple backs/tight ends. Georgia State’s not the intended target, but it will be a good test for the Owls to see if the package can stick against a Group of 6 opponent without giving up much through the air.

I hit on this with a preview over at PantherTalk this morning - these 12/21 personnel moments when GSU has the ball are probably what settles this game. Without Ted Hurst, I don’t know that Georgia State has the dudes at receiver to win straight-up on the outside, even if Cameran Brown’s a value-added QB at this level. GSU OC Hue Jackson (yeah, him) is better off trying to get linebackers in space against Hollier/the running backs and win on scheme. In the same way that Georgia State’s busted RPO coverage feels like a check engine light against KSU, Brown’s first touchdown pass of the season - a wheel route from the backfield into the boundary - is a play the Owls likely watched a thousand times this week.

How much does Gerard Bullock’s likely absence hurt the Owls? Mack mentioned that the Owls were mostly healthy coming into Week 2, which glosses over the absence of Donovan Westmoreland and the situation with TE Gerard Bullock. One of just three returning starters on offense, Bullock looked like he got rolled up on against UWG and left the field on a cart. He returned to the sidelines in crutches and it would be a shocker to see him in action Saturday. Bullock’s injury probably doesn’t change much for what the KSU offense wants to do, as Reed Jesiolowski is essentially a like-for-like swap. I won’t go as far as calling it an upgrade - obviously the staff brought Bullock back late for a reason when Jesiolowski was penciled in as starter. What you give up in the fullback-type duties, the Owls may get back with increased productivity in the passing game.

Another plotline in the room: Chase Tatum already found a role as TE2 when the Owls go a little heavier. He’s TE3 when the Owls are 11 personnel, but will be the second tight end on the field if they hit the 12 personnel button. Tatum ran onto the field for a third-and-short to replace slot receiver Davis Bryson, moving the Owls into a rare two-tight end package. Bullock was so surprised by the idea of using a second tight end that he started trotting off the field himself before realizing what was happening.

Here’s how the Owls lined up on the fourth and short. Will be interesting to see how much more they use two tight ends now with Tatum more involved.