Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston
Saturday, Nov. 14 | 2:00 PM ET | ESPN+
Projections
Vegas: Owls -7.5 | O/U: 46.5
SP+: KSU 29, Sam Houston 20
FEI: KSU 24, Sam Houston 19
FPI: Owls by 6.4
Massey: KSU 27, Sam Houston 24
Matchup by the numbers
So Long-o
Play-calling coaches can get away with bad offenses. They can get away with being bad vibes guys. They can get away with lackluster CEO and game management skills. They can’t get away with all of it at once. Sam Houston fired Phil Longo on his week off, just a season and a half into his tenure as the Bearkats’ head coach. You can be bad at times, but you can’t be consistently embarrassing. Following a 2-10 debut season with a 1-8 start to 2026 reached the point of no return.
Credit to Sam Houston’s admin, which includes a retiring AD, for recognizing the mistake and meeting the moment to fire a head coach whose tenure seemed off from the beginning. G6 programs don’t have a ton of time to spin their wheels in this era. Longo allowed the program to slip into such disrepair so quickly that the team’s Veggie Tales Barstool jersey patch sponsor attempted a coup d'état to become the interim head coach to give the program “exposure.”
This is an FBS team that’s been in operation for more than a century, won 10 games two seasons ago, and lifted an FCS national title post-COVID. I’m sure every Bearkats fan - and Longo himself - would rather have the cash value of a sponsorship than whatever barter deal for Youtube posts they cooked up with Snapback. Perhaps they could’ve used it to field a more competitive offense (#135 nationally in EPA/play and #136 in success rate).
Colton Foster from the Huntsville Item outlined the downfall of the Longo, a story worth a read and revealing on both sides of the coach-beat writer relationship. I think we’re a little through the looking glass once we start using injury report dishonesty in the postmortem. Lot of weird energy between Longo and the Sam Houston media, going in both directions.
Replacing Longo in the short term is an interim tag team: DC Freddie Aughtrey-Lindsay and special teams coordinator/associate head coach Eric Raisbeck.Longo’s Xs and Os’ duties on offense were passed along to Zack Patterson, who was previously the offensive coordinator in name only. If Sam Houston fans were hoping to see a dead cat bounce, it sure didn’t happen against Jacksonville State. The Kats hung around for a scoreless first quarter, then gave up 24 straight on the way to a 47-14 loss on the road. Back at home, can Sam Houston find a little solace against a KSU team in must-win mode to keep the postseason chase alive? That would be quite a disappointing way for this mini-resurgence from the Owls to wrap up.
Questions at QB for Sam Houston
The biggest on-field storyline for the Bearkats comes at quarterback position, where Longo’s handpicked gunslinger Landyn Locke has been dealing with a leg injury the last few weeks, opening the door for some minutes from DJ Bailey lately.
A 6’4” 220-pound pocket passer, Locke saw some action toward the end of last season as a true freshman and then entered 2026 as the Bearkats’ QB1, leading Longo’s air raid system. When active, how has Locke looked this season? He’s flashed with some highlight-reel plays at times and shown glimpses of why he signed with Wisconsin out of high school before de-committing and coming down to Huntsville. Locke’s basically been a worse version of Rickie Collins - minus the mobility, with more risk involved. Take a look at the side-by-side comparison:
According to PFF, Locke actually leads CUSA in both big time throws and turnover-worthy plays, which is kinda unbelievable when you look at where he’s throwing the ball. Locke ranks outside CUSA’s top 10 (a ten team league, as a reminder) in throws 10+ yards downfield.
Behind LOS: 25.1% (3rd)
Short: 42.1% (6th)
Medium: 16.1% (14th in the league)
Deep: 9.7% (12th in the league)
Bailey’s a third-year holdover from the Keeler regime who’s had a tumultuous season with the Kats. He and true freshman Brett Holloway battled for the QB2 job, and when Holloway got the garbage time reps in Sam Houston’s only win (59-0 over Nicholls), Bailey left the sideline early as the blowout win wrapped up.
Sam Houston removed Bailey from the roster and Longo cited an “in-house” issue when asked about it. The QB reappeared on the roster later in the week, and then took 60 snaps against Missouri State. Oddly enough, these Longo comments after Bailey’s first extended caused a serious stir among the Bearkats fans and media:
“We know DJ has great arm talent, and he has been here for a while now. There is a comfort level, but some of the things that probably keep him from being the starter or the backup showed tonight. But this was a good experience for him. He learned under fire. He had to handle some things that were different. He will benefit from this in the future, but we have issues offensively that we have to take care of first.”
I shorted Longo stock from Day 1, but the reaction to what in all actuality was a pretty benign quote made zero sense. We ask these coaches to be honest, then crush them when they give an open take about how a dude with an up-and-down season (left the team, then came back) performed in his first true action. Whatever the issue between the two, you can just take a look at Bailey’s post after Longo’s firing to get the QB’s take on what he thinks about the change.
From a win probability standpoint, I don’t think it matters which one of these dudes starts for Sam Houston. You’re still going to get roughly the same game plan, potentially with a few more deep shots from Bailey (12.0 ADOT vs. 6.9 for Locke).
At this stage of the season, they know what Locke is and injured or not, there’s not much upside in putting him out there for a 1-8 team. Can they unlock something with the career backup or get Holloway in the mix? That’d be my play, particularly if Locke is anything less than 100% healthy.
What weapons do Locke/Bailey have at their disposal?
Two things jump out about the Sam Houston receiving corps: They’re short and they can’t catch this season. For all the conversation about the QBs in Huntsville, Sam Houston’s entire lead trio of wideouts ranks at the bottom of CUSA in catch rate. Grady O’Neill has dropped more passes than anyone in the league. Chris Reed is second, and Tim Burns Jr. is seventh. On the size side, only 17 receiver snaps all season have gone to players taller than 6’1.”
O’Neill, a fifth-year Wisconsin transfer standing 5’9”, 175, gets the bulk of the targets, with the highest passing game usage. He’s averaging just 5.93 yards per target. Burns and Reed are a little scarier, but it’s almost like a room full of WR 2s or WR 2.5s.
Fortunately for KSU, the corners are playing their best football of the season. This is what the overall cornerback landscape looks like in CUSA, but if you cut it down to the last three games - a stretch that includes Makai Jackson, Cam’ron Lacy, and the Delaware unit - Tay’vion Lawson grades out as the best CB in the league. Luke Evans isn’t far behind at #4.
If they can handle that recent stretch of receivers, I don’t think there’s much. Pass play tackling is the key here if Sam Houston continues to spam WR screens and underneath action.
The Bearkats running game is pretty dire, ranking in the 130s in stuff rate, EPA/rush, power success - you name it. 6’2” 220-pound Alton McCaskill is the lead back and our absolute unit of the week - except he ranks 18th among CUSA backs in average yards after contact. He’s also not getting a ton of assistance from the OL and the scheme, with less than a yard before contact on each carry.
Keep an eye on freshman MJ Dowdy, a Winder native who picked up a KSU offer during his recruitment. He’s getting 9ish carries a game the last four weeks and would probably top my portal list if I put together an early glance.
Will Landon Varnes continue as QB1 for KSU?
Forget about the Sam Houston offense for a second. We have our own QB situation to worry about anyway. Rickie Collins departed the Delaware game after suffering some sort of upper-body injury on an acrobatic touchdown run. Landon Varnes came out of the bullpen to throw for 254 yards and a TD in the victory, leading six scoring drives of his own.
Mack called his original QB1 “day-to-day” during his weekly press conference and said that Collins was getting some work in at practice. As I’ve come to realize, that could mean literally anything in Mack-speak. Collins could come out and throw for 300 yards and 4 TDs. He might’ve also retired from football already. Truly no telling.
I’m on record saying it’s time to see what Varnes and the rest of the room can do now that the Rickie Collins Experience is clearly defined. Varnes wasn’t perfect against Delaware (71.2 passer rating, 62.9% drop-adj. completion, and a brutal pick) but I think the Owls have to rest Collins and see what the JUCO transfer can do with a full week of prep as the starter. Here’s what Varnes’ season looks like so far when broken out by location:
Passing grid via CFB Numbers
Like I said, not perfect - but his 13 yard average target depth was 2.5 yards further than the previous season high for Collins. He’s swinging for the fences and will have a couple strikeouts here and there. Plus, how electric would it be to watch a Landon vs. Landyn shootout?
Sam Houston’s defense has done more than enough to keep them in games, particular against the pass. A lengthy group of corners will test KSU on the perimeter, but a lackluster Bearkats pass rush (top two DEs rank 19th and 35th in win rate anong CUSA esges) could give Varnes or Collins more time to grow into the game.
Can the Owls continue to improve on the ground?
Follow-up question: Will we see more Pistol this afternoon from the Owls? That was one of the other main developments that caught my eye last weekend. Mitch Militello’s game plan took Delaware’s defense for a ride last weekend, landing a lot of punches against an aggressive Delaware front five. I’m sure I’m missing something, but that’s the most I can remember the Mack/Militello system lining up in true Pistol and not the post-snap shuffle that they started this year. They did both on Saturday, but lining up in a true Pistol set gives Boogie Woods a two-way go to get downhill from the snap.
The combo of tempo and Pistol caught Delaware sleeping on Woods’ first touchdown. Manny Rojas’ defense couldn’t get set in time, and Woods was off to the races after one move in the backfield.
All in all, KSU lost Collins and still ended up with their most productive day on the ground all year in terms of EPA per rush.
Last week, we also touched on the expansion of the more gadget elements of the offense, like involving the receivers in the run game. KSU extended that even further by lining up Davis Bryson in the backfield at times against Delaware. With two tight end sets mostly off the menu once Chase Tatum was unavailable, lining up with three dudes in the backfield (Bryson, Woods, and TE Reed Jesiolowski) is a clever way to work around the personnel limitations and come up with a similar effect.
In a way, it’s not far off from what Liberty does with Jaylon Coleman by lining him up at fullback in the pistol to throw off the defense’s rules. I would not be surprised if the Owls try to get Bryson involved in the passing game out of the backfield now that this stuff is on tape more.
Josiah Chenault’s heel turn
Kennesaw State will run into the CUSA title-winning center on Saturday as Josiah Chenault found a new home in Huntsville after a lengthy journey in the portal. Chenault started the season on the bench, and it was reported by March 2 the Pod that he didn’t show up to fall camp in the best shape.
After stepping in for injured center Brock Stukes in Week 6, Chenault now has five starts under his belt with the Bearkats. As it currently stands, PFF grades him as CUSA’s 8th best run blocker and 5th best pass blocker, putting him slightly behind Mateo Guevara, his replacement and another intra-CUSA transfer. One of the underrated dynamics of today’s game is Chenault facing Jackson Cooper, Jaiden Grimes, and AJ Miller - three dudes he went up against in practice every day last season. Whole lot of familiarity to pull from. I think I’d give KSU the edge here but it will be an intriguing matchup nonetheless.
CUSA watchlist
3 PM: Mexico State @ Missouri State
ESPN+ | Mo State - 1.5 | O/U: 49.5 | SP+: Mo State 27-23
3 PM: FIU @ Delaware
ESPN+ | Delaware - 4.5 | O/U: 53.5 | SP+: Hens 27-25
3:30 PM: Jax State @ WKU
ESPN+ | JSU - 7.5 | O/U: 54.5 | SP+: Gamecocks 35-19
MTSU @ Liberty
CBSSN | Liberty -21 - 1.5 | O/U: 53.5 | SP+: Flames 43-11
