GAMEDAY: BACK TO WAR WITH LIBERTY
A temporary truce with the AJC, a very unbiased pick, and more notes ahead of tipoff.
As much as we’ve reminisced on the ASUN basketball series, tonight’s visit from Liberty feels much more like last fall’s football game. There’s still a national spotlight in Kennesaw courtesy of CBS Sports Network, just without the do-or-die stakes of those basketball matchups.
We’ll look back on this week as the turning point toward whatever becomes of the Owls’ first run through CUSA basketball. KSU plays against the ceiling of the conference, at least analytically, and the absolute rock bottom — both in a home environment where they haven’t lost all season. For better or worse, Pettway will find out his team’s true level over the next 48 hours or so.
I’m thinking we should short the Liberty stock, even if the stats don’t exactly back me up just yet. Here’s the full breakdown from KenPom:
..and CBB Analytics:
How much more upside do the Flames have, especially running with a one-man bench? We may have already seen their peak, and it was with a healthy Isaiah Ihnen in the lineup. The clock has to strike midnight eventually on the tiny Porter/Metheny tag team at guard, a familiar thought to the Owls fans who lived through the 2024 season. We don’t have to rehash the full preview, but opportunities will be there for the Owls.
This is kinda how I feel talking about Liberty, though, so take it for what it’s worth.
One thing that gives me a lot of optimism: The Owls have still another gear or two offensively and defend well enough (top 50 nationally in eFG% allowed) to give them some leeway if shots aren’t falling. This current 3 of 4 run in CUSA (the only loss coming by two points in El Paso) featured only one above-average scoring night. Is the cold shooting a feature or a bug? Playing the stingy Flames pack-line in front of the home crowd will be a definitive way to find out.
Give me the Owls outright tonight - let’s go with 71-69. The higher that total ticks, the more likely it is that one of Liberty’s guards got hot from three. Wooley, Cottle, and Lue outplay their matchups, and the home streak continues. I am a very logical and unbiased observer, who definitely won’t delete this at the first sign of trouble.
Line: Liberty -3.5 | Total: O/U 145.5
Are the betting markets starting to catch up on the home-court advantage at the Convo? I haven’t been able to dive back in to the home/away stats after the frontier trip, but the Owls were outperforming expectations in Kennesaw by nearly 7 points per game based on the pre-NMSU numbers.
After opening at 4.5, tonight’s current line and total give us an implied final score of Liberty 74.5, Kennesaw 71. Comparing that to where most of the power rating projections landed, our friends in the desert seem to have the Owls at a slightly different price right now:
KenPom: LU 72, KSU 68
EvanMiya: LU 75, KSU 70
T-Rank: LU 72, KSU 67
Massey: LU 75, KSU 71
Haslametrics: LU 74, KSU 67
ESPN BPI: Liberty by 6
We’re not talking a massive difference in most cases, but I find it interesting that Massey and KenPom are the only projections to come within a half point of the current spread.
AJC: Trio of freshmen help Kennesaw State defy early doubters
I’m willing to call a brief cease-fire on my holy war against Atlanta’s paper of record, if only because Stan Awtrey got Pettway to say “Man, I’m going broke buying donuts.” Pettway and Cottle spoke to the AJC about the high-impact newcomers and how the team is progressing heading into the most important CUSA matchup to date.
They’ve already played more than the average freshman,” Pettway said. “I tell they’re really sophomores so it’s time to take that next step and they’ve done it. We could have gone in the portal and gotten players but we wanted to get talented freshmen we can mold and who would want to come and be part of something special.
At least the AJC published something BEFORE the Owls made national headlines for once, instead of leeching off the attention after the fact. One step at a time. This truce ends as soon as they go back to using AP stories for every game.
A Sea of Red: Liberty at Kennesaw State Preview
You haven’t fully lived until you’ve gone into the depths of Liberty Twitter. What a strange ecosystem. Constant takes about firing coaches, bad Barstool impressions, about 6,000 podcasts, some intense political commentary, and what seems like a constant bracket to decide the fanbase’s most popular influencer. They are the villains in almost every aspect but created an impressive alternate reality where they are lovable underdogs. It’s easy to get lost in there.
The most “normal” element is A Sea of Red, an independent blog covering the Flames. Jon Manson previewed tonight’s game over at their site and talked to Ritchie McKay about the ASUN days. “You don’t want to go to war’ – I’m sure we will hear that playing once or twice from the band,” McKay said.
You can also check out the latest basketball edition of the ASOR podcast to catch up Liberty’s season and get a decent cross-section of how the fan base is feeling. Plus some advanced numbers, a rarity for most fan-run media outlets. Worth a listen if you’d like to check in on the Flames ahead of tipoff.