We’re only a couple days away from Conference USA kicking off league play with Middle Tennessee State’s visit to the Jax-is of Evil.
What does the title picture look like heading into Week 4? As wide open as expected, according to our friends in the desert.
Current CUSA title odds, via DraftKings
Liberty: +320
Delaware: +360
Jacksonville State: +500
WKU: +650
Kennesaw State: +800
FIU: +1400
NMSU: +2200
Sam Houston: +3500
Middle Tennessee State: +4000
To make the info more palatable to those of us who haven’t burned all the neurons in our brain with gambling apps, this chart converts the current DK odds into an implied percentage to compare with the preseason. Liberty’s still the favorite, just barely, after Delaware roughly doubled its chances through three weeks. WKU has collapsed after two paycheck games and a loss against Nevada.
After all the anxiety out of Kennesaw from the Georgia State loss, Vegas considers the Owls more likely to win CUSA today than when the season kicked off. A lot of that’s probably due to the WKU price falling off a cliff, but beggars can’t be choosers.
Beyond just title contention, here’s how a few of my go-to power rankings sort out the league so far within the national landscape.
When you look at team strength (using rating instead of the rank) in a forward-minded metric like SP+, you’ll see that every team in the league actually improved vs. the baseline. Except WKU. On average, CUSA teams improved by about 4 points compared to their preseason ranking. Tyson Helton’s world travelers (zero home games so far) sunk by more than a touchdown.
FPI also gives us a snapshot of a team’s chances to hit six wins, our best possible stand-in for bowl eligibility since everyone’s a full member this season. Based on the current ratings and results still to come, FPI sees about 5 bowl teams coming from the league. How does that compare with the preseason? As a long-time admirer of Conference USA’s Bowl Confidence Index, I also included that extremely useful statistic.
That’s probably where the nerves come in for Kennesaw State fans. As the league compressed even more through the first 3 weeks, the downside outcome of missing a bowl became much more likely - even if there’s not a huge change in title odds or team strength. I’m still feeling mostly positive but Arkansas State this weekend is a huge litmus test for this team against a solid Sun Belt squad.
We’ll also get a few more solid data points this week. The aforementioned MTSU-Jacksonville State matchup gets the conference slate started on Saturday night, and Liberty visits Coastal Carolina tonight for a good ol’ fashioned transitive property overreaction. Last week, Delaware took care of the Chanticleers at home, winning 22-14 in the Sean Wilson show — 185 yards and 2 TD for the wideout. Liberty’s result, whichever direction tonight’s game goes, could reframe the conversation at the top of the league.
Lot of football left, obviously, but we’re going to find out a ton about this league over the weekend. The full CUSA slate for Week 4:
Thursday
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina
7:30 PM | ESPN | Flames - 2.5
Saturday
Sam Houston @ Texas Tech
12 PM | TNT | Flames - 2.5
New Mexico @ New Mexico State
3:30 PM | CBS Sports | TT - 34.5
Delaware @ Virginia
6 PM | ACC Network | UVA -19.5
LIU @ FIU
6 PM | ESPN+ | FIU -35.5
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas State
7PM | ESPN+ | A State -6.5
Mercyhurst @ WKU
7 PM | ESPN+ | WKU -38.5
Middle Tennessee State @ Jacksonville State
7 PM | ESPN+ | Gamecocks -7
Missouri State @ SMU
9 PM | ACC Network | SMU -34.5
