Look, the actual CUSA schedule is here

Kennesaw State finally has a real-life football schedule for this fall.

I can’t blame you for not paying attention to the first announcement back in March that was so clearly a negotiation tactic in the now-settled Louisiana Tech saga. There was no point in taking it seriously, since the entire goal was to enter “Dibs” into evidence in state court hours before the Sun Belt posted its own full slate.

With Louisiana Tech set to drop a bag in a settlement reported north of $8 million, that cleared the way to get back to regularly scheduled programming for the 10 remaining members after the Bulldogs and UTEP depart.

(Side note: CUSA should split the exit payouts equally between the current football and men’s basketball champs. Only seems fair.)

Behold, the long-awaited schedule for the entire league:

If you didn’t commit Kennesaw’s original schedule to memory and care to run through the changes, KSU Owls dot com has you covered with what’s different for us on version 2.0:

CUSA’s lack of identity, continuity, and shared history all make it a little difficult to come away from a schedule release with any takes about the actual games. You can look at who each team misses (no New Mexico State for KSU in a manageable travel load) or try to pick out which teams with a million newcomers might be good to find marquee matchups. Past that, how many games in CUSA matter for the fan bases regardless of quality within that individual season?

Kennesaw’s proto-rivarlries against Jacksonville State and Liberty are two of the only current CUSA series that rise above replacement-level G6 slop, and the league office placed both of those on Wednesday nights. I understand the logic and necessity of the weeknight spotlight and corresponding TV money. CUSA still misses the mark in trying to make it the conference’s entire personality at the expense of developing in-person fan experience with more traditional Saturday games.

Consider the current template for scheduling in the league: Buy games in both directions during September, weeknight games for the entirety of October, then hope people still care in November. That’s how you end only playing three weekend home games for the entirety of a pivotal year for culture-building year for KSU fans. How does that work for an Owls Fund benefit structure exclusively built on gameday perks? Can Milton Overton sell his Battery Jr. mixed-use development with an anchor tenant that only plays on three Saturdays the entire year?

To the school’s credit, KSU nailed the OOC slate given the parameters. The Owls will pay it forward with an in-state FCS newcomer, revisit a potential rivalry with Georgia State, and take a check in an SEC cathedral against a friendly staff that will be reluctant to run up the score. Throw in a rematch against Jerry Mack’s alma mater and you have an intruding month before the league office sells out to be background noise for mindless scrollers and fuel for degenerate gamblers all October.

Can CUSA find a better balance between the TV product and in-market fan experience before the next media rights deal? That’s the $750,000 question and might be worth exploring more in-depth this offseason with ratings, financials, and other data past pure vibes. I’m going to try and go game-by-game through the schedule in detail here in the next couple weeks, too.

Even with the league-wide uncertainty, we can also use the new spring SP+ ratings to get a way-too-early look at some expectations. Assuming KSU won’t be a home underdog against an FCS team to open the season, Bill Connelly’s numbers at ESPN would project the Owls as favorites in 8 of 12 games this fall. I think Connelly’s full CUSA preview should come out in the next week or so as well. Always worth a read.

West Georgia: TBA, no FCS ratings yet
Georgia State: Owls by 18.3
@ Tennessee: Vols by 27.8
@ Arkansas State: Red Wolves by 3.3
Jax State: Owls by 0.9
@ Missouri State: Owls by 6.9
Liberty: Flames by 0.4
@ MTSU: Owls by 14.2
Delaware: Owls by 6.2
@ Sam Houston: Owls by 14.5
FIU: Owls by 6.9
@ WKU: Toppers by 6.5

DraftKings also dropped the first glimpse at win totals - posting three bets for each team. Converting those betting markets to no-juice probabilities gives us an idea of the early industry perception on the league’s ten teams. An imperfect science since nobody plays the same OOC schedule and we’re still months away from on-field action, but hey, it’s May. Gotta fill the time somehow.

Those weeknight games against Jax State and Liberty will bring two of the oddsmakers’ favorites into Kennesaw for relative toss-ups within the first few weeks of the conference slate. Adding home games against Delaware and FIU (who DK is a little higher on than SP+), we’ll see four of the top 5 teams in terms of win total projections at Fifth Third Stadium. WKU’s the only CUSA road opponent that DraftKings currently sees as more likely than not to make a bowl game. I’m not sure there’s a ton of difference between the hardest- and easiest-possible CUSA schedules, but KSU’s path is on the friendlier end of the spectrum travel-wise, despite not skipping any likely frontrunners in the rotation.

If you’re into the Conference Wars, friend of the progrum Sidelines Kennesaw State also broke down the rest of the league’s non-conference action. Whole lot of Sun Belt comps coming up per usual, plus a truly disgusting schedule up in Bowling Green that limits the Hilltoppers’ ceiling on the win total projections.

For whatever it’s worth, here’s how Draftkings rates Kennesaw’s two Sun Belt foes in terms of win totals. Georgia State’s pegged somewhere around the four-win mark, while both SP+ and the oddsmakers place Arkansas State on roughly equal footing as the Owls.