Good morning and welcome back to Hoot State. Jerry Mack will get a homecoming for the second consecutive week, this time returning to a campus near and dear to his heart as both a player and a son.

What should we expect tonight when the Owls close out the non-conference slate?

Saturday, Sept. 26 | 7:00 PM | ESPN+ | Jonesboro, AR

Vegas: ASU -6.5, O/U 52.5
SP+: ASU 30, KSU 24
FEI: ASU 28, KSU 23
FPI: Red Wolves by 3.3
Massey: ASU 31, KSU 24

Arkansas State's season so far: Picked preseason to finish third in the Sun Belt West, Arkansas State brought back almost half of its snaps from 2025. Through 3 weeks of action, the Red Wolves are 1-2 and +1400 to win the league - 9th overall and 5th in the West division.

They’ve faced a similar non-conference slate to the Owls: Gave up too many explosives against Memphis (more on that later), handled West Georgia, then lost to a P4 team - TCU, in this case - in a way that you could talk yourself into not being all that bad. Sounds familiar.

Using the SP+ adjusted margins and postgame win expectancy, A-State’s within about a point where you’d expect based on the numbers: +3 on the actual scoreboard, +4.2 on the expected scoreboard.

L: 42-24 @ Memphis — Adj. margin -9.5, PGWE 13.4%
W: 52-7 vs. West Georgia — Adj. margin 37.1, PGWE 100%
L: 31-7 @ TCU — Adj. margin -23.4, PGWE 0.3%

The Owls visit Five Hamilton in his new home. Hello, old friend. If you’d like an example of how quickly the game changes, the 178-pound DB played almost the entire Kennesaw-Arkansas State matchup at nickel last season - essentially serving as an extra corner against the pass-happy Red Wolves offense. This season, KSU has revamped the defense and just played 220-pound Tywon Christopher in that nickel (or third linebacker) role for almost the entire game against an SEC team.

Hamilton hit the portal during the winter and became a central figure for the Red Wolves’ defense at Star, their hybrid DB. They’ll get a little more varied with his usage, though, and Hamilton has already played more snaps at deep safety and in the box than he did the entirety of last season with Kennesaw as a situational fifth DB. If you’re wondering why he left for a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team, he’s started all three games and is probably the most important player on ASU’s defense.

Butch Jones touched on Hamilton’s contribution during the Sun Belt press conference this week, talking about what the “silent leader” has brought to the A-State program.

Hamilton also had a pretty funny house call INT against West Georgia where the recevier just straight up falls down out of his break. 91 yards later, the Red Wolves all but wrapped up their win over West Georgia.

As awful as West Georgia is, it’s a little bit of an indictment that it was a two-TD game at that point, right?

Former blue-chip QBs battle it out. When Rickie Collins (LSU, then Syracuse) and Trey Owens (Texas) started their college careers, this is probably not the stage where they’d expect to face off. Both four-star recruits transferred down to the G6 level looking for a fresh start and consistent playing time, replacing QBs heading in the opposite direction.

How do the two QBs stack up against similar competition so far this season? Thanks to CFB Numbers (highly recommend his QB app), we can pair up their overall profile and also see where they’ve done the most damage.

Edge goes to Collins so far, thanks to ball security as 5 total turnovers weigh down Owens in his first starting turn. If you can live with the lows, he’s had some nice high points, though, and has been slightly more explosive than KSU’s more reserved passing game. You’d probably be able to compare the two QB box scores tonight and predict the result pretty easily even without watching.

Owens is an underrated runner and packs a punch on his stiff arm. He’s not quick at all, yet he can get rolling like a runaway train behind his 6’5”, 220-pound frame. Different challenge than Cam Brown or Faizon Brandon, but it’s a factor to consider tonight. He does rank 149th in the nation in pressure-to-sack rate, which could be helpful for an KSU pass rush that’s shown some life but hasn’t finished the job as much as you’d like. Mattioli’s defense currently rank dead last in the nation in havoc rate created against FBS opposition.

Looking at the bigger picture on defense, KSU will get a second chance against an offense that will push a lot of the same buttons as Georgia State. As mentioned earlier, new OC Garrett Altman came in with a new system derived from the New Mexico State/Vandy system made famous by Pavia. Altman did have much more continuity than you’d expect at the G6 level: 61% of offensive snaps returned, good for 9th in the nation. They’ve slowed down the pace and used a lot more tight ends - 40% more TE snaps on average, with 8 different dudes seeing the field so far. ASU brought back 3 of their top 4 wideouts from a year ago, but the absence of Corey Rucker (124 targets) leaves a lot to be desired in that room.

I’m intruiged to see what Altman’s game-plan looks like in the Red Wolves’ first game against a team in a similar financial weight class. Either way, expect plenty of option-ish elements with Cobb going in motion constantly and serving as a slot back at times. Looking at the matchup page from Game on Paper, here’s how the two units compare when the Red Wolves have the ball.

After Georgia State, the blueprint is there to give KSU trouble on defense: Slow down the game, make the Owls defend sideline to sideline from condensed formations, and use the tight ends and backs in the passing game. Not to say Arkansas State doesn’t have talented guys, but this is one of those games that will test the Owls’ defense mentally a lot more than physically.

One example from the Memphis game that might as well be pulled straight from the Georgia State script. Arkansas State faked a jet sweep to Cobb and popped Kenyon Clay out of the backfield up the hash for an 75-yard touchdown.

A few key injuries are worth monitoring, one for each team when Arkansas State has the ball: Red Wolves RB Kenyon Clay and KSU MLB Baron Hopson, who was a game-time decision to miss the game at Tennessee. Reading the tea leaves, both guys practiced this week and seem likely to suit up tonight.

We also haven’t gotten any update on Tyler Hallum, who was replaced by Luke Evans in Knoxville. I didn’t see Hallum in uniform last weekend, for what it’s worth. Evans and Lawson handled themselves well against a much more impressive receiver group than they’ll face tonight. Since CUSA and Sun Belt both do injury reports, we might get an update pregame on his status.

It’s a prove-it day for KSU’s offense, which currently ranks 127th nationally in points per drive. You’re not going to get a cleaner look at how Arkansas State’s defense wants to attack the Kennesaw than by watching the Memphis game. New HC Charles Huff hired ODU’s offensive coordinator to import his version of the Veer and Shoot that was developed by watching Josh Heupel and other variations from afar.

Arkansas State used a lot more four-down fronts in Kennesaw last season. This year, at least against Memphis, Arkansas State often opted for this 3-2 structure, with safety AG McGhee 8-9 yards off the ball and fitting the run like an extra linebacker. Two other safeties stayed high and outside the hashes, with another player splitting the different to the tight end side.

Memphis responded by running the ball 47(!) times for 335 yards, led by 4 TDs from Jaylin Carter. His third touchdown probably gives the best look at the kind of explosives that are on the table if the Owls see - and can handle - these light boxes. Memphis handles the 6 blockers and the boundary safety doesn’t have a shot to make the play.

Factor in Collins’ running ability and the Owls will have every opportunity to right the ship on the ground in a lot of plus-one situations. They’re currently 130th nationally in rushing success rate and PFF grades the team’s run blocking as 133rd out of 138 teams.

As the amount of possession shrink and the value of quick scores continues to rise, Arkansas State will do what they can to keep a lid on the deep ball with a couple deep safeties. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another healthy diet of quick and intermediate throws from Collins to force a reaction. That doesn’t mean explosive pass plays are off the menu entirely. Memphis scored a wide-open touchdown against A-State that was almost a carbon copy of Gabe Benyard’s from last year. They used a switch release from the boundary slot receiver and put the linebacker in a blender.

Verdict: You won’t believe this, but I like KSU to put it together and cover the 6.5 tonight. I’m still banking on that Georgia State game being a bit of a mirage on both sides. Maybe I’m delusional. Fascinating matchup all around that will reveal the true level of the Owls regardless.