A PIRATE LOOKS AT 40 FREE THROWS: OBSERVATIONS FROM GREENVILLE
Recapping a frantic multi-team event at East Carolina.
When Kennesaw State plays tournament basketball in North Carolina, just know it’s coming down to the last minute. You can rank ECU’s TowneBank Holiday Classic slightly behind March Madness in prestige, but the multi-team event in Greenville delivered three competitive, entertaining games and a couple SportsCenter Top 10 finishes for the new-look Owls, who posted a 2-1 record against Georgia Southern, Northeastern, and the host Pirates. ECU’s answered prayer from the backcourt on Tuesday night put a shock finish on what was otherwise a step in the right direction for the KSU program two weeks into the Antoine Pettway era.
We saw 99% of the ideal November MTE, missing only a strange, temporary arena or tropical locale. It’s easy to feel romantic about college basketball watching non-conference mid-major games in front of small crowds, particularly at tipoff times like 3 PM. If you want see this sport come close to Enlightenment, look no further than. these smaller, on-campus showcases held almost exclusively for fans of the participants and the most hardcore hoops addicts. Where else can you see a small group of ECU fans adopt a guy wearing a KSU-branded banana suit as one of their own?
Our non-D1 games against Oakwood and Keiser have been low-stakes fun, and there’s always a rush matching up with a power conference team on the road. But this, to me, reprresents the real start of basketball season: Every game matters deeply, just for a moment. The ASUN will never be anything more than a one-bid league, so our current non-conference slate isn’t about building a case for the selection committee the same way it would be for the high-majors. It weirds me out seeing national guys like Jeff Goodman make a case against national title contenders before the turkey finishes smoking on Thanksgiving. Instead, you can watch our games in a vacuum, no matter how much you care about the individual results. (For me: the answer might be too much. I walked out of Horned Owl in slow motion last night with my head down like George Michael Bluth as soon as Pettitford’s buzzer beater fell.)
Other than the literal last moment, KSU fans couldn’t ask for much more from the road trip in terms of entertainment value and big-picture progress as all the puzzle pieces are still fitting together for Pettway’s reloaded program. eFG% improved every game, even as the competition ramped up throughout the week. Seven different Owls scored in double figures at some point over the three-game series, most notably Terrell Burden returning to form by averaging 18 points, 5 assists and looking every bit of full speed. If they handed out TowneBank Classic awards, he’s my extremely biased choice to take home the pirate sword trophy or giant debit card as MVP to go along with his new title as the KSU’s career assist leader at the D1 level.
Six games in, we’re still at the starting line of the marathon that is the college basketball season. It’s far too early to make any concrete judgements comparing the current Owls with last year’s ASUN champions one way or the other, but it’s not hard to see Pettway’s vision taking shape and at least understand the blueprint of what it would look like to get back to competing at that level. The program’s potential can sometimes force you to forget about its relative youth: This was only the second time since jumping to Division I that the Owls have won two games at a multi-team event like this. The first happened last season.
THE RESULTS
Owls 96, Georgia Southern 92. Two limbs of the Nate Oats coaching tree were on the sideline in the opener, with KSU in control against Pettway’s former coworker Charlie Henry. Win expectancy never dipped below 40%, despite the Eagles keeping the game within single digits throughout. A big night from freshman forward Frankquon Sherman, who dropped his first 20-point performance as an Owl.
The moment: Simeon Cottle and Demond Robinson go 6/6 from the FT line in the final 30 seconds to close the door on the Eagles. It’s not fun to watch a game end at the line, UNLESS it’s your team. That’s one of the most beautiful sights in sports.
Pettway’s quote: On Sherman - “Playing the right way, attacking the rim, doing the things he’s capable of doing. The sky’s the limit for that freshman.”
Owls 79, Northeastern 77. Grinding out a win in Game 2, led by the senior leaders Burden (24 points) and Robinson (15 points, 8 boards). For all the talk about the gravity of losing the trio of USF transfers, Pettway retained the two most important players in the program and they delivered on Monday afternoon.
The moment: Robinson sinks a buzzer-beater from mid-range to earn the win and an appearance on the SC Top 10.
Pettway’s quote: “Once we got the ball back, I was about to call a timeout, but Terrell Burden said, ‘No coach, I got you.’ So I think I need to listen to him a little bit more.”
ECU 85, Owls 84. The cruelest way to lose in basketball: Hitting a go-ahead basket followed by the opponent making a half-hearted lob from 50+ feet that will pop up on ESPN for the next week. A ref show to say the least as ECU shot 24 more free throws, yet you have to give some credit to the Pirates for forcing the issue and drawing at least 4 fouls from five different Owls.
The moment: You already know.
Pettway’s quote: “Trust your work. We’re doubling down on who we are.”
I posted about the Owls tempo numbers on Twitter yesterday because it’s the standout difference under the new regime: As advertised in preseason media coverage, Pettway demands that his Owls push the pace, and the early returns back that up in a major way.
Kennesaw State has only had one team in school history play fast enough to finish inside the Top 100 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo: the ‘08 team ranked 71st. Pettway’s last Alabama team as an assistant finished first in the same AdjT metric. For some added context on time per possession, the 07 Seconds or Less-era Phoenix Suns finished the ‘05-’06 season at 13.7 seconds per possession. The Owls are running at roughly the same pace as a team that played so fast that it inspired a book and countless imitators.
The main problem to this point: We’re outside the top 200 in efficiency on both ends of the court and shooting just 42.2% from the field - 255th in the country. You can likely point to any of the following to explain it: Burden’s preseason ankle injury, an ugly FSU road trip that got away from the Owls early, and inexperience in the system. All that said - if they can clean it up while still pushing the pace to these levels, and find a consistent, this Owls squad has a lot of room to grow before they hit their ceiling. You could convince me that the potential peak is higher than last year’s if you catch me on the right night at the Convo after a couple room temperature domestic lights. Not to be sacrilegious, though.
Another important side effect to the new style with the CUSA move on the horizon: It could work wonders with converting the curious fans who may jump on board later on the year or started paying a little more attention after the Owls’ run last March. Winning always works. Winning in a highlight-reel fashion that can draw a wider crowd works even better.
OTHER VERY IMPORTANT THOUGHTS
Given how close each game finished, the Owls obviously had plenty of chances in high-leverage possessions. Brand-new system and all, they only had two trips down the court in the last minute across the entire event where they didn’t come away with points. Certainly helps when you make your free throws and Burden can get to the basket at will.
Robinson followed his buzzer-beater by … taking more threes than shots inside the arc against ECU. There have been some early complaints on Owls Twitter about Demond’s three-point tendencies a couple weeks into the season, and his shot chart (below, via CBB Analytics) looks unrecognizable from what we’re used to seeing from the big man. Honestly? Keep pulling the trigger, Mondo. Pettway is a Players’ Coach to the fullest extent, and that freedom must be a major part of why Robinson and Burden came back to play under the new regime. We’re seeing about 11 more possessions per game than last season - I’m fine with guys using a few of the extra trips down the court to see if they can keep the defense honest.
Valuable experience for the freshman duo of Sherman and Johnson, who arrived on campus and immediately slotted into major roles with 40%+ of available minutes and offensive usage rates around 22%. They were thrown in the fire against Florida State, and three games in as many days against teams in our weight class gives even more on-the-job learning. A quiet outing for the pair Tuesday (2 points for RJ, 6 for Sherman while fouling out) doesn’t take away from the flashes we’ve seen thus far.
It’s been a little while since Kennesaw hosted a holiday tourney, so I’m going to start the campaign to spend Feast Week at home next season. Even if the home-and-home with Georgia State takes them out of the picture, it’s worth checking on Mercer and Georgia Southern’s Thanksgiving plans next year.
UP NEXT - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Sunday, Nov. 26. at 6 PM. Just like the football team traveled to Sam Houston for a CUSA preview, the Owls head down to Miami to meet up with a future conference foe that has started 1-6, including a winless performance in the Cayman Islands Classic earlier this week. Familiar ASUN face Jonathan Aybar will start in the post for the Panthers after transferring from North Florida. FIU’s Arturo Dean comes close to Burden’s usage rate, so you’ll see the two point guards battling in the key matchup.
Our dear friend Ken Pomeroy projects an 81-78 loss for KSU, and ESPN’s highly scientific Matchup Predictor gives the home team a 65% chance to win. If you’re looking to make a business transaction and FIU does end up the favorite, skip the points and take the Owls straight up at the other Convocation Center.